Perspective: Morning Commentary for January 13

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 13 Jan 2022, 14:36

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

January 13 – Stock futures posted modest gains this morning, following data showing high inflation at the producer level combined with increased jobless claims as Omicron numbers surge. The VIX is trading near 18 this morning as Wall Street trusts the Fed to do the “right thing.” The dollar index fell to 94.7, posing a fresh two-month low. Yields on 10-year Treasuries fell as more money shifted into the sector, trading near 1.73% this morning. Crude oil prices are modestly higher, while the Ags were mostly lower in overnight trading.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to 230K in the week ending January 8^th, up from 207K the previous week and well-above analyst expectations of 205K. This increased the four-week moving average to 210.75K claims. Continuing claims, which are delayed a week, fell 194K to 1.559 million in the week ending January 1^st, which is the lowest level for continuing claims since June 2, 1973. So, first-time claims increased as we turned to the new calendar year as Omicron numbers rapidly rose, but the overall jobs market is very tight, which may force action from the Federal Reserve to tighten its monetary policy.

The producer price index rose 0.2% month-on-month in December, which was half the 0.4% rate expected by analysts. The November number was revised to 1.0% month-on-month growth, up from the previously reported 0.8% gains. As such, the PPI was up 9.7% year-on-year in December, with the November number revised upward by 0.2 points to 9.8%, which matches what analysts thought would be the December number. However, the core PPI that excludes food and energy prices rose 0.5% in December, matching analyst expectations, but down from 0.9% growth in November. The core PPI rose 8.3% year-on-year in December, up from 7.7% in November and above analyst expectations of 8.0%. So why the difference? Energy prices were down 3.3% year-on-year in December, while food prices were down 0.6%. Yet, much of the rest of the goods and services continued to see inflationary pressures.

The year-on-year inflation numbers hit you in the face at 40-year highs, but Wall Street is choosing this morning to look at the declining month-on-month numbers, saying that inflation has peaked. Traders see the tight jobs market and the high inflation numbers and feel that the Fed is now onboard with a plan to address both. The Fed is saying all the right things currently about inflation being a priority, including recent comments made by Fed members in the middle of this Omicron outbreak. They say they will deal with it appropriately. It’s yet to be seen if they know how to deal with it appropriately, because the Fed helped create an unprecedented situation. Yes, inflation was even higher 40 years ago, but for different reasons. One of the key questions for the economy, and for the commodity markets, in 2022 focuses on whether the Fed will find the “magic sauce” for appropriately normalizing monetary policy, and whether fiscal policy will cooperate as well.

The Centers for Disease Control reported 797K new Covid cases on Tuesday, down from an adjusted 1.352 million cases on Monday, although that count appeared to include some weekend numbers. The seven-day moving average rose to 762K. Hospitalization numbers are rising due to the sheer numbers of Covid cases, with deaths starting to turn higher as well. Yet, FlightAware reports that “just” 363 U.S. flights have been cancelled so far this morning, with just 453 delays, both numbers down sharply over the past week. Yet, the problems continue to increase for China, where Omicron is complicating China’s efforts to maintain a zero-tolerance policy. It has its own internal problems containing Omicron, but that’s also being complicated by a record number of cases arriving on flights from overseas. China suspended more U.S. flights, with some reports indicating that they will be totally shut off on January 18^th through the end of the month, ahead of China’s Lunar New Year holiday.

USDA’s January set of crop reports was relatively uneventful for the most part. The most significant market-moving surprise focused on the winter wheat seedings report that found more planted soft red winter wheat acres than expected. That triggered more selling in the winter wheat markets, which were already struggling under bearish chart signals. Look for the wheat markets to largely ignore rapidly declining U.S. winter wheat ratings until we get closer to spring when the crop comes out of dormancy. The corn and soybean markets are focused now on South American weather, which shows some signs of improvement, but the rains will not solve the problems. Weekly export shipments will also increasingly become the focus, especially for soybeans.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

August 10 - Stocks traded quietly mixed to weaker through much of the morning as investors weigh Middle East war / peace headlines with artificial intelligence concerns / opportunities. Ironically, the VIX is trading near 15, putting it just barely above 2026 lows, despite the high level of geopolitical risks and AI concerns. The dollar index continues to consolidate largely between 99.5 and 100.0 after the late July break in what appeared to be Japanese central bank currency intervention. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.70%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 at this hour, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel on the geopolitical risks. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed ahead of Wednesday's big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 17:02

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