StoneX logo
Contact us

Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 20

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Add us as preferred source on Google

July 20 – Both commodities and stock futures firmed in trade early this morning as we prepare to start a new week. Fighting continues to escalate in both the Middle East and in the Black Sea Region this morning, elevating risks for food and energy commodities, while the U.S. economy continues to show solid growth. The VIX is trading near 18 this morning, which is modestly elevated from where it has been much of this month, but it by no means reflects panic on Wall Street. The dollar index is trading near 100.9 this morning, as it has been trending slowly lower since late June. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.57%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.20%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel after hitting a five-week high overnight, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets are firmer, led by soybeans that continue to have strong domestic demand along with steady Chinese buying on the export front.

Ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz is at a near standstill once again. Most that do pass through the Strait do so without their transponders, so a close study of ships reappearing on the other side is needed to understand actual movement. Even so, the data suggests just one or two vessels making the transit, with no oil tankers. Two vessels were hit in the Strait by Iran over the weekend. That leaves crude oil seeking alternative routes. Iraq is doing what it can with truck convoys to move oil over land, while Saudi Arabia has its pipeline to the Red Sea. However, the Iran-backed Houthis today declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, so we’ll be monitoring their effectiveness in being able to stop tanker movement via the Red Sea. Iran called on the Houthis last week to shut down passage through the Red Sea if the United States hit Iranian infrastructure, which it did following the deaths of a couple of U.S. servicemen over the weekend in Iranian strikes on Jordan.

Negotiators proposed a 10-day ceasefire today while a broader memorandum of understanding could be reached once again, but I don’t hold out much hope that will lead to peace. Iran constantly talks the talk of wanting negotiations to string things along, while continuing to “poke the bear” once that occurs to trigger more strikes. In fact, it’s not only poking at the United States, but also poking at its neighbors like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, the UAE, etc. I see a couple of intentions in all of this. First, I believe that Iran wants to draw this conflict out past the U.S. midterm elections, at which time it hopes that President Trump loses Congress, and that the new Congress will force him to withdraw troops from the region so that it can declare victory. Second, I’m increasingly believing that Iran is trying to bait the United States into a ground war. Revolutionary Guard members are radicals who believe that they will be rewarded in death, and they really do not care about the lives of ordinary citizens. I believe that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has been preparing for this day for decades. We know that it has underground storage facilities for its arsenal of missiles and drones, and it likely has many contingencies for a ground war as well that it believes it can win by hiding behind civilians. Vice President Vance stated last week that the United States has no intention to send 150,000 troops into Iran to clean things up, but Iran keeps goading the United States to do so. Look for that poking, prodding, and goading to continue, with disruptions to energy and fertilizer shipments in the process. This puts fertilizer back on the table as a possible issue for global 2027 crop production, which is the timeframe we were initially concerned about when this war broke out.

Hostilities continue to ratchet up in the Black Sea as well. I don’t have the full weekend count yet, but Ukraine had hit 159 Russian connected ships in 12 days as of Friday, with 117 of them in the Sea of Azov and 42 in the Black Sea. Most of them were tankers, but some were dry cargo ships reportedly carrying Russian military supplies to the frontlines of the war in Ukraine. Ukraine also hit the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on the Black Sea with crude loading capacity of 1.5 – 1.7 Mb/d. For its part, Russia stepped up its strikes again on Ukraine grain export facilities, as well as ships near those ports. Specifically, it hit a Turkish owned cargo ship leaving Odessa with a load of corn yesterday, killing 10 crew members. We’re seeing little in the way of new ships going into Ukraine’s ports currently – just ships already there trying to load their cargoes and get out. Ukraine’s ports are essentially closed to grain and vegetable oil exports. The question now is, how long is that true for Russia’s ports?

Grain always finds a way to move, but in a less efficient and more costly manner. In the end, this increases demand for U.S. corn, and eventually it could end up boosting demand for U.S. wheat, but the U.S. is at the end of the line for meeting global wheat demand. Meanwhile, China continues to buy cargoes of U.S. soybeans. It will be some months before we know if China will import more U.S. soybeans than what the USDA already has on its balance sheet, but keep in mind that China is well aware of the increased risks for Brazil producing soybeans and corn in strong El Nino years. Focus is increasingly on developing demand for U.S. Ag commodities.    

  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Related articles for Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 21

July 21 – The tech sector led stock futures higher overnight as investors anticipate major tech company earnings reports in the days ahead, while seemingly feeling immune to two wars half a world away that continue to escalate. It’s day #1,609 of Russia’s war on Ukraine, and day #144 of the war with Iran, with neither showing signs of culminating any time soon. These wars are in some of the world’s most critical locations for commodities essential for the global economy, and yet there remains little panic in the U.S. markets at this point. The VIX is trading below 18, while the dollar index trades near 101.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.61% this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.23%. WTI crude oil is trading near $85, while Brent trades near $91 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector traded mostly in negative territory overnight after weekly crop ratings largely came in above trade expectations on Monday afternoon.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 20

July 20 – Both commodities and stock futures firmed in trade early this morning as we prepare to start a new week. Fighting continues to escalate in both the Middle East and in the Black Sea Region this morning, elevating risks for food and energy commodities, while the U.S. economy continues to show solid growth. The VIX is trading near 18 this morning, which is modestly elevated from where it has been much of this month, but it by no means reflects panic on Wall Street. The dollar index is trading near 100.9 this morning, as it has been trending slowly lower since late June. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.57%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.20%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel after hitting a five-week high overnight, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets are firmer, led by soybeans that continue to have strong domestic demand along with steady Chinese buying on the export front.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 17

July 17 – Stocks have recovered from their morning lows but remain in the red at midday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq still leading the way down as it trades 0.8% lower at the time of writing. The VIX remains up roughly 7% on the day to hang around 17.9 at the time of writing, though it is off notably from the three-week high of 19.50 seen earlier in the session. The dollar is trading almost right at unchanged at midday, currently around the 100.75 level. Treasuries are quietly mixed, with 10-year yields slightly in the red just above 4.54% and 2-year yields slightly in the green trading just above 4.17%. Crude oil remains elevated amid the ongoing escalations between the U.S. and Iran, with risk premium coming in ahead of the weekend’s market closure, as nearby WTI current trades up 2.5% on the day near $81.60 and nearby Brent trades up 4.4% on the day near $88.00. The grains and oilseeds are widely higher, with the return of Chinese purchases to the U.S. and the ongoing escalation between Russia and Ukraine impacting shipment through the Black Sea keeping a bid under the market, though the cattle complex continues its recent ugly selloff.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
Read more
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.