Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 03 Jul 2023, 13:18

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

July 3 - Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the holiday-shortened week, with many in the trade extending their weekend today ahead of tomorrow's market closure for U.S. Independence Day. The VIX looks to start the day below the 14 level as Wall Street continues its relative sense of calm. The dollar is looking to start the week on a positive note after falling sharply on Friday, trading around the 102.7 level at the time of writing. Treasuries are narrowly in the green, with 10-year yields trading near 3.83% while 2-year yields hang around 4.91%. Crude oil is rallying off of this morning's announcements while the ags are starting the week mostly in the green as well.

The world's top two oil exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia, both announced that they will be extending cuts to their output, sending crude prices higher to start the week. On top of the existing OPEC+ curbs, Saudi Arabia voluntarily cut their production targets for July by one million barrels per day in an attempt to boost prices. The country announced today that they would be extending these cuts into August as well and left open the option for extending them even further. Russia is joining in on the supply reduction effort, today saying they will cut their own oil exports by 500K barrels per day in August, aiming to reduce their production by the same amount. Contrary to expectations coming into the year, crude oil markets have struggled to rebound as a worse than expected economic recovery in China and lingering global recession fears have hampered demand. The countries' move to curtail supply in hopes of raising prices may bring them some short-term benefit, but looks to add more complexity to the world's attempt at economic recovery in an already clouded second half of 2023.

Soybean futures are continuing their surge higher on the back of Friday's shockingly low 83.505 million planted acre estimate from the USDA, with the November contract jumping well over $1.00/bushel since the report's release. Coming in 4 million acres lower than the USDA's March 31st estimate despite expectations of an increase of around 600K, Friday's report caught the market very much off guard. If USDA's estimate is accurate, the margin of error for U.S. soybean yields shrinks significantly and places even more importance on a shift in the weather pattern for the Midwest in the near future.

Changes from USDA's June 30 acreage estimates to their final numbers happen more often than not, as can be seen in the below graphic. However, those changes are typically to the downside, with corn acres over the last 15 years on average falling 645K and soybean acres falling 656K. While the unexpectedly large 94.096 million corn acres certainly have plenty of room for reductions, soybean acres do not. On Friday's report, the USDA stated that there were 2.49 million acres of corn and 8.22 million acres of soybeans left to be planted at the time the survey was conducted. As such, there is certainly room for significant change. The last time we saw an increase in soybean acres from the June 30th report to final was back in 2017, which also saw a reduction in corn acres over the span. A dry June should have aided the planting of those remaining acres, and the sharp rally in soybean prices following Friday's report may incentivize more double-crop plantings behind wheat. There will certainly be considerable debate over the actual acreage numbers in the months ahead and their resulting impacts on U.S. balance sheets, but for now the market has no choice but to trade USDA's numbers.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

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