Perspective: Morning Commentary for May 25

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 25 May 2022, 13:22

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

May 25 – Fear continues to hover over Wall Street. Stocks are again under pressure this morning as the market prices in current economic challenges. Geopolitical risks are also noted after both China and Russia reportedly flew nuclear bombers over the Sea of Japan during President Biden’s visit to Japan, which the West has condemned as aggressive behavior. This comes after Biden’s statement that the United States would help Taiwan defend itself against a Chinese invasion, and as China’s army conducts military training in its eastern theatre. The VIX is trading near the pivotal 30 level this morning, while the dollar bounced to trade near 102.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 2.74%. Crude oil prices are roughly 1% higher, while the Ags are notably lower this morning.

Durable goods orders rose 0.4% month-on-month in April, falling short of analyst expectations of 0.5% growth. The previous month was revised to 0.6% growth, down from the 0.8% growth originally reported. Durable goods orders minus transportation rose by just 0.3% in April, which was half the 0.6% expected by analysts and down notably from the 1.1% growth seen in March. Core capital goods orders also rose by 0.3% month-on-month in April, down from analyst expectations of 0.5%, and also down from 1.1% growth seen in March.

The food-based commodities are under pressure again this morning amid talk that Russia may allow grain to flow out of Ukrainian ports once again. More headlines emerged that Russia would be willing to do so, albeit they still contain a caveat that all sanctions against Russia must be lifted. There were also reports that the U.K. would be willing to utilize warships to escort grain cargoes out of Ukrainian ports. Russia faces significant challenges in its war with Ukraine. It would love to see the sanctions against it lifted to facilitate paying for its war on Ukraine. That’s one of the last things that the West wants to do. But strange things can happen when food shortages and high prices create social unrest within the borders of some of the countries involved with the sanctions; especially those countries where the leaders face elections. Keep in mind that authorities in Ukraine have stated that it would take six months to start meaningful shipments out of the ports due to the need to repair the ports and to clear the waters of mines in the region. Nonetheless, the Algos are trading the headlines.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy reports that 12.253 million hectares have been planted to spring crops thus far, accounting for 72.4% of last year’s total, as the window of opportunity starts to close. Spring wheat planted area totals 188.6K hectares, which is 98.2% of 2021 levels, while spring barley area totals 927.7K hectares, or 98.2% of its previous total. Area planted to corn totals 4.293 million hectares, which is 78.4% of the previous year’s total, while sunflowers planted account for 63.1% of last year’s total at 4.111 million hectares. Farmers are planting the crops amid some limits on available crop inputs in hopes that they will be able to harvest a crop to export. The current expectation is that Black Sea wheat exports will fall by 22 million metric tons in the year ahead, while corn exports will fall by 8 mmt in the coming year, on top of lost shipments seen in the current marketing year, with the possibility that export shortfalls could be even greater, depending on how the war evolves.

Today is the final day for farmers in much of the Dakotas, northern Minnesota, Nebraska, much of Kansas and Missouri to plant corn and be eligible for full insurance protection for their crop. It is not the last day that they can plant the crop, but insurance benefits slowly decline incrementally each day beyond today that they put the seed into the ground. The final date for soybeans for many of these same areas is over two weeks from now on June 10^th. The farmer’s decision on whether to plant late will hinge on many factors, including the condition of the ground, whether he’s already committed on his fertilizer, alternative cropping options, etc. Some farmers tell us they’d prefer to plant corn late if given the chance, while others say that they’d prefer to plant other crops, while some will take their insurance check and sit this one out. The area most in doubt is the Red River Valley north of Fargo, North Dakota on the North Dakota / Minnesota border. Decisions still need to be made on several million acres of land in that region. The region has enjoyed a break in the wet pattern that has plagued it this spring, but drying progress has been slow. Some significant fieldwork took place in areas away from flooded river areas in recent days, but rains are expected to return on Friday, which may close the window of opportunity for good if the forecasts verify. This is a critical week for the region. The markets normally wouldn’t be too concerned about this region, and this week’s price action suggests that they are not currently concerned either, but this is a year when every acre counts. The same applies for spring wheat planting in the region, which has even greater delays than corn.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

August 10 - Stocks traded quietly mixed to weaker through much of the morning as investors weigh Middle East war / peace headlines with artificial intelligence concerns / opportunities. Ironically, the VIX is trading near 15, putting it just barely above 2026 lows, despite the high level of geopolitical risks and AI concerns. The dollar index continues to consolidate largely between 99.5 and 100.0 after the late July break in what appeared to be Japanese central bank currency intervention. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.70%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 at this hour, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel on the geopolitical risks. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed ahead of Wednesday's big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 17:02

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