Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 24 Nov 2021, 14:26

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

November 24 – Stocks face modest pressure on the last full trading day of the week, ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday break. The markets will be closed on Thursday for the holiday, with just a short trading day on Friday. Many traders will be leaving early today, with plans to return on Monday, which will likely lead to a low volume day of trading on Friday. Nonetheless, it is noteworthy that the VIX continues to trend higher, trading above 20 this morning, reflecting rising nervousness on Wall Street with stocks near record territory. The dollar index hit a new 16-month high of 96.9 this morning as the euro continues to tumble, creating concerns for how the strong greenback may hurt the U.S. economy. Crude oil prices are quietly lower at this hour, while the Ags were mixed to higher.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to a new post-pandemic low 199K in the week ending November 20, down from 268K claims the previous week and well below analyst expectations of 264K claims. In fact, last week’s claims number is the lowest weekly total since November 15, 1969, when it was just 197K. The 71K decline in weekly claims dropped the four-week moving average to 252.25K, down from 273.25K the previous week. Continuing claims of individuals still unable to find work fell another 60K in the latest week reported to 2.049 million, which is again the lowest total since March 14, 2020, when the number was 1.770 million. People are returning to work, reflecting the strength of the economy.

Durable goods orders fell 0.5% month-on-month in October, after falling 0.4% in September. Analysts had expected a 0.3% increase month-on-month in durable goods orders. However, durable goods orders minus transportation rose by 0.5%, matching analyst expectations. Furthermore, September durable goods orders were revised to 0.7% month-on-month gains, up from the 0.4% gains originally reported. The Federal Reserve closely monitors core capital goods orders that reflect growth prospects for businesses. That number rose 0.6% month-on-month in October, matching analyst expectations. The September number was revised to 1.3% growth, up from 0.8% reported originally. The bottom line is that transportation orders slowed in October, but demand for durable goods otherwise remained strong during the month, reflecting a healthy economy.

Gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the third quarter, in today’s second reading of third quarter data. That was up from the 2.0% growth rate for the third quarter that was previously reported, although it matched analyst expectations. Personal consumption expenditures grew at an annual rate of 1.7% in the third quarter, up from analyst expectations that it would remain at the originally reported rate of 1.6%. Other data showed that corporate profits were up 27.6% year-on-year in the third quarter. While strong, that was down from the 70.5% growth in profits seen year-on-year in the second quarter. Of course, those year-on-year numbers were reflective of growth coming out of the pandemic shutdown. Corporate profits with inventory and consumption adjustments were up 19.1% year-on-year in the third quarter, which again was down from a 45.1% rate in the second quarter.

China reported just 4 new local Covid cases yesterday, with two of those cases in Dalian and two in Yunnan. Yet, China’s economy continues to suffer due to its zero-tolerance policy toward Covid. Passenger road traffic was down 42% year-on-year, while down 23% year-to-date from the previous year. People are staying home, spending less in the process. Yet, China has little choice, at this point, but to maintain its zero-tolerance policy. Its population has relatively low natural immunity levels, due to its sustained zero-tolerance policy, and its vaccines has a lower effectiveness rate of many others in the developed world. Altering its policy at this point could result in hundreds of thousands of positive cases per day in a country where rural health care is lacking. China’s healthcare system could be overwhelmed. This puts China in a difficult position as it seeks to exert its strength as a world power, both economically and militarily. China remains a country of strategic importance that wields a great deal of influence. It has strategically leveraged its influence to create dependency among many nations needing to do business with it. China has also promised to “reunite” Taiwan to the homeland, using military strength if necessary. Yet, its economy faces increasing headwinds due to its strict Covid restrictions, with no apparent way out. But also, it’s important not to under-estimate China’s ability to deal with difficult challenges, which it has shown an ability to do in the past. It remains the world’s second largest economy, with the largest army of active personnel totaling 2.2 million and reserve personnel of another 1.2 million. It will do whatever it deems necessary to feed the world’s largest population and to protect what it deems to be its sovereignty. It has significant challenges, but it’s still very relevant.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

August 10 - Stocks traded quietly mixed to weaker through much of the morning as investors weigh Middle East war / peace headlines with artificial intelligence concerns / opportunities. Ironically, the VIX is trading near 15, putting it just barely above 2026 lows, despite the high level of geopolitical risks and AI concerns. The dollar index continues to consolidate largely between 99.5 and 100.0 after the late July break in what appeared to be Japanese central bank currency intervention. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.70%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 at this hour, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel on the geopolitical risks. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed ahead of Wednesday's big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 17:02

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