By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst
October 14 – Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open after yesterday's decline, with all eyes on the upcoming September CPI release this morning as the market looks for signs of the pass-through of inflationary pressures currently held at the producer level. To that end, we’ll also get updated producer level inflation tomorrow with September PPI on tap. The VIX remains relatively muted to start the day, hanging near 15.3 at the time of writing. The dollar is sitting just above unchanged, near 102.25 after a sharp reversal yesterday after reaching a fresh 18-month high on Monday. Treasury yields are off slightly this morning, with 2-year yields at 4.776%, 10-year yields trading back below the 5.20% mark, and 30-year yields at 5.55%. Crude oil is pushing higher to start the day following notable escalations between the Saudis and Houthis, with nearby WTI up 1.2% to trade just above $95.90 and nearby Brent up 0.6% to trade near $106.30. The Houthis launched widespread attacks across Saudi Arabia over the last 24 hours, striking the Aramco headquarters complex in Dhahran while also targeting multiple sites in the Riyadh area, while the Saudis respond with heavy airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, as well as fuel infrastructure in the capital city of Sanaa. Both sides appear to be signaling further escalation ahead, keeping this flashpoint in focus. Meanwhile, the ags are looking at a mixed start to the day, with soybeans seeing the biggest strength and the wheat complex seeing the biggest weakness.
Russia launched another major wave of missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, damaging roughly 30 facilities and leaving up to 600,000 people without power, echoing Russia’s typical seasonal campaign of degrading Ukraine’s power grid ahead of winter. Ukraine responded with long-range strikes within Russia, though the featured target was a major Sberbank data center in the Saratov region rather than energy facilities. It’s becoming increasingly clear that Russia is not interested in participating in an energy ceasefire, with the Russian defense ministry today publicly stating it had struck four power plants in and around Kyiv and two more in Kharkiv, openly defying Trump’s weekend announcement. Still, the pressure on Ukraine appears to be growing, with Kyiv reporting no advance warning from western intelligence prior to recent Russian strikes on the city, while SpaceX has placed new restrictions on Starlink terminals in Ukraine, impacting military operations.
Average 30-year mortgage rates inched slightly higher to 7.50% in the week ended October 9, up only one basis point from the week prior following the slowdown in long-term Treasury yields but continuing to represent the highest level seen since November 2023. Overall mortgage application volume fell another 2.7% week-on-week, pushing the Mortgage Bankers Association’s composite Mortgage Market Index to its lowest level since early January 2025. The weakness this week was driven by a 4.0% weekly decline in new purchase applications, the sixth consecutive drop that also marks a low since early January 2025. Meanwhile, refinancing applications fell 0.4% week-on-week. Yesterday’s unexpected strength in September existing home sales continued to point to a surprisingly resilient U.S. housing market, but rising supply availability in step with rising mortgage rates may look to further pressure prices after they fell 2.4% month-on-month to their lowest level since April.
U.S. corn ratings rebounded 2% week-on-week to now sit at 56% good/excellent, beating the average analyst estimate of 54% and recovering most of the 3% drop seen in the week prior. Following the sharp uptick in their corn yield estimate on Friday’s October WASDE report, it’s not a huge shock to see USDA’s condition ratings move higher in turn. Meanwhile, national soybean ratings held steady at 57% good/excellent, matching analyst expectations. The bigger intrigue in my opinion, however, was on how much catch-up would be made on the notably delayed harvest given the largely ideal warm, dry conditions seen last week. There was a clear prioritization on soybean harvest, advancing 21% week-on-week to reach 46% complete as of October 11, beating the average analyst estimate by 2% and pulling closer to historical paces, though still representing the slowest at this point in the year since 2019. Massive gains were seen specifically in the northern U.S., with Minnesota and Wisconsin leading the way with weekly advancements of 43% week-on-week each, followed by South Dakota (+30%), then Iowa and North Dakota (both +26%). Conversely, corn harvest advanced a lesser 10% week-on-week to reach 33% complete, missing the average analyst estimate by a sharp 5% and falling further behind schedule. Considerable progress should’ve been made over the weekend, though scattered storm systems in the days ahead may look to knock many combines out of the field for the time being. Last week’s solid progress should take much of the pressure out of the front-end of the cash market, however, particularly on the soybean side.
U.S. winter wheat planting is also attempting to play catch-up, advancing 15% week-on-week to reach 51% complete on yesterday’s report, matching analyst estimates but continuing to represent the slowest pace for the comparable week on record. Following the needed boost to soil moisture profiles on the Plains, top U.S. winter wheat producer Kansas led the way, advancing 20% week-on-week, followed by Nebraska and Texas at 19% each. This pulled both Nebraska and Texas within reach of their previous five-year average paces, though Kansas and Oklahoma remain notably behind; the heavy system moving from the Texas panhandle through Oklahoma and eastern Kansas today may slow progress again. With fall crop insurance prices at four-year highs, farmers should be incentivized to get back in the field as quickly as possible, though it will be important to keep an eye on forecasts in the weeks ahead with more rain expected.
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Algeria's large milling wheat tender shows buyers switching origins, with European supply supported and Argentine and Russian Baltic wheat in contention. The shift helps explain why U.S. wheat exports trail their pace and why Russia's northern ports now carry so much weight.
October 14 – Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open after yesterday's decline, with all eyes on the upcoming September CPI release this morning as the market looks for signs of the pass-through of inflationary pressures currently held at the producer level. To that end, we’ll also get updated producer level inflation tomorrow with September PPI on tap. The VIX remains relatively muted to start the day, hanging near 15.3 at the time of writing. The dollar is sitting just above unchanged, near 102.25 after a sharp reversal yesterday after reaching a fresh 18-month high on Monday. Treasury yields are off slightly this morning, with 2-year yields at 4.776%, 10-year yields trading back below the 5.20% mark, and 30-year yields at 5.55%. Crude oil is pushing higher to start the day following notable escalations between the Saudis and Houthis, with nearby WTI up 1.2% to trade just above $95.90 and nearby Brent up 0.6% to trade near $106.30. The Houthis launched widespread attacks across Saudi Arabia over the last 24 hours, striking the Aramco headquarters complex in Dhahran while also targeting multiple sites in the Riyadh area, while the Saudis respond with heavy airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, as well as fuel infrastructure in the capital city of Sanaa. Both sides appear to be signaling further escalation ahead, keeping this flashpoint in focus. Meanwhile, the ags are looking at a mixed start to the day, with soybeans seeing the biggest strength and the wheat complex seeing the biggest weakness.
Argentina's strong wheat harvest and a run of export tax cuts have made its wheat more competitive than wheat from rival exporters, just as Black Sea disruption bottles up Russian supply. The main remaining risk is the harvest itself, where heavier rain linked to El Niño threatens the quality that Brazilian importers rely on.
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