Perspective: Morning Commentary September 223

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 23 Sept 2025, 13:28

Today's Perspective Video: Corn Export Demand is on Fire

September 23 – Stock futures were mixed overnight, as they consolidate just below record highs while investors wait for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on the economy at midday today. The VIX is trading near 16 again this morning, while the dollar index trades near 97.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.14%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.59%. Crude oil prices are 1% higher, while the grain and oilseed sector is mixed.

Is the U.S. bailing out Argentina? U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pledged “large and forceful” actions to stabilize Argentina’s peso by utilizing a 91-year-old crisis fund. Bessent intends to use the Exchange Stabilization Fund to save the peso after last week’s sharp break in the currency. Yet, he still needs President Trump’s approval. Trump will meet with Argentine President Javier Milei in New York today to discuss the potential bailout. One condition that might be applied to the fund’s use would be to push China back in the repayment line, as China has been trying to position itself as Argentina’s support piece. The fund was previously used to ease a financial crisis in Mexico and Brazil in the 90’s, and in Uruguay in 2002. The fund was originally created in 1934 to stabilize the dollar during the Great Depression. It can be used for the purchase or sale of foreign currencies, issuing loans or credit to foreign government or entities, or acquiring and using Special Drawing Rights, which is the International Monetary Fund’s reserve asset. President Milei built on his relationship with Trump when he attended Trump’s inauguration in January, although China has been trying to lure Argentina its way as well. It’s believed that Bessent could support Argentina by buying up pesos to support their value or even buy up portions of Argentina’s dollar-denominated debt.

Argentina has the natural resources to be a powerhouse agricultural commodity exporter competing with the United States. It’s been hampered for decades by massive social programs that were funded by export taxes on agricultural commodities that often exceeded 30%. President Milei came into office promising to unleash the Argentine economy by cutting government programs while slashing taxes on these agricultural commodities. He was making progress until his party lost a key election in Buenos Aires this month, raising concerns that support for Milei’s reforms might be waning. Milei responded by declaring an export tax holiday on grains and oilseeds until October 31, or until $7 billion in dollar denominated revenues could be generated. That dropped the price of Argentine soybeans by roughly $3 per bushel, with corn falling by 50 cents per bushel. Chinese buyers quickly took advantage of the tax holiday to purchase 10 – 12 cargoes – some say up to 15 cargoes – of Argentine soybeans for November delivery, helping to fill the void created when they were prevented from buying U.S. cargoes due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions with the United States.

China’s commerce ministry reported today that its lead trade negotiator Li Chnggang met with U.S. political and business leaders from the Midwest seeking a solution to the current standoff between the two countries. President Trump is believed to be seeking a trade deal with China that involves it purchasing large quantities of U.S. agricultural commodities, along with Boeing aircraft. U.S. Ambassador to China David Purdue told reporters today that he thought negotiations over China buying more aircraft are in their final days or weeks. However, soybean futures broke sharply lower on Friday when official reports from the White House failed to mention any discussion over agricultural commodities following President Trump’s highly anticipated phone call with President Xi. Additional weakness came yesterday when Argentina declared its tax holiday on its agricultural commodities, which enticed China to be a big buyer of those soybeans. The window of opportunity for U.S. soybeans to fill Chinese crush needs prior to the arrival of cheaper new crop supplies from Brazil is rapidly closing, unless China agrees to purchase large quantities to put into their reserve in order to get more favorable access to the massive U.S. consumer market. Such a deal could happen at any time, although there is little evidence at this point that such a deal is close to happening.

Argentina’s tax holiday weighed on corn, soybean, and wheat prices on Monday, although the design of the program is expected to most impact the soybean complex. Significant chart damage was done in the soybean and wheat markets on Monday, while we did see both corn and wheat prices try to bounce overnight. There’s still considerable debate about the size of this year’s U.S. corn and soybean crops, which are in the early stages of harvest currently. There’s general agreement that the corn crop is getting smaller, but there is considerable debate about the scope of that decline. Some areas are seeing significant losses, while others – particularly the northwestern Midwest – are seeing strong yield potential. Soybean seed size appears to be smaller this year due to the late season drought, but very high pod counts seem to be partially compensating for that, with yields in very dry areas of the central and eastern Midwest impressing me thus far in the early harvest period.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

August 10 - Stocks traded quietly mixed to weaker through much of the morning as investors weigh Middle East war / peace headlines with artificial intelligence concerns / opportunities. Ironically, the VIX is trading near 15, putting it just barely above 2026 lows, despite the high level of geopolitical risks and AI concerns. The dollar index continues to consolidate largely between 99.5 and 100.0 after the late July break in what appeared to be Japanese central bank currency intervention. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.70%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 at this hour, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel on the geopolitical risks. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed ahead of Wednesday's big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 17:02

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