By: Razan Hilal, Market Analyst
The prospect of U.S. rate cuts is beginning to shift how traders position across major currencies as weakening data pressures the dollar. Markets are attempting to reconcile long-term technical structures with fast-changing macro expectations that increasingly challenge the dollar’s multi-year resilience. Euro and sterling have held firm above important support zones as investors test whether policy momentum can sustain a broader realignment. The convergence of these forces raises the probability of sharper moves once resistance or support levels give way.
Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst, examines how evolving rate expectations are reshaping directional risk across major FX pairs.
Changing expectations for monetary easing are challenging the durability of the dollar’s long term uptrend because weakening US data is encouraging markets to price earlier cuts. This shift increases the sensitivity of major currency pairs to structural levels that have contained price action for much of 2025. Hilal highlights this turning point when noting that “the US Dollar Index is pricing in the December rate cut expectations” and that new lows are possible if the 95 support fails. Her framing underscores how policy momentum can amplify technical signals and reshape FX bias as the market approaches 2026.
Euro and sterling have held important weekly support zones as investors test whether the dollar’s weakening momentum can sustain further upside. Hilal notes that both pairs maintain a “neutral to a bullish hold” while their RSI readings rebound above the midpoint, signalling improving trend strength. She also explains how a breakout in EURUSD above 1.1680 could extend gains toward 2021 highs and how GBPUSD may follow a similar path if 1.34 clears decisively. These dynamics show how rate cut expectations can activate long dormant technical structures and unlock multi month directional moves.
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--- Expert: Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst
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