REPUBLISHING Colombia Could Expand Coffee Output to 20 Million Bags With New Low-Land Variety
(This story was originally published on Friday evening. Adds detail)
Cartagena — (Coffee Network)- Colombia could boost its coffee production to 20 million 60-kg bags in the medium term, supported by the development of a new variety adapted to warmer, lower-altitude regions and resistant to pests, according to Germán Bahamón, general manager of the National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC).
Speaking at the closing ceremony of the 89th Coffee Exporters Association (Asoexport) Summit, Bahamón announced that the Coffee Research Institute, Cenicafé, will launch the new Arabica varietal in 2027. The cultivar, named “Umbral,” has been under development and testing for the past 30 years and can be cultivated at altitudes starting from 850 meters, effectively expanding Colombia’s coffee frontier.
“We believe that, in the medium term, we will be able to deliver 20 million bags that the world needs to sustain consumption of Colombian coffee,” Bahamón said. “By 2030, global demand is projected to reach 200 million bags, and Colombia must be ready to supply that market.”
In comparison, the world consumed 117 million bags in 2000. Colombia currently produces about 14 million bags, although this year’s output is expected to decline due to torrential rainfall.
Market dynamics and consumption trend
Bahamón noted that the coffee market is currently characterized by a near-perfect balance between supply and demand, which has helped stabilize prices despite global uncertainty.
“We’ve consumed nearly all available inventories over the past six months—around 16 million bags—which explains both the current tightness in the market and today’s prices,” he said.
Despite market uncertainty, coffee consumption remains strong worldwide. The habit of drinking coffee has not declined, and capsule coffee sales are growing by 40% year-on-year. In Colombia, consumption is also expanding: the average price of Colombian coffee rose 29%, and the category as a whole grew 2.1%, with 8% of sales now classified as premium sensory profiles.
“When one sees that prices are finally fair and volumes aren’t decreasing, I don’t understand why there’s still speculation about prices falling,” Bahamón remarked.
Over the 12 months ending in October, the value of the coffee harvest totaled COP 25 trillion (US $6.54 billion), generating direct income for Colombia’s coffee producers. Coffee accounts for 1.5% of national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 18.7% of agricultural GDP.
Almacafé and Logistics Modernization
The logistics arm of the coffee federation, Almacafé, has launched Cafenlace, an online platform that enables sales of green and roasted Colombian coffee directly to U.S. consumers.
“With just one click, coffee can arrive at a U.S. home within 72 hours. It’s the Amazon for Colombian coffee,” Bahamón said.
In addition, Colombian actress Sofía Vergara has partnered with the federation to launch her Dios Mio Coffee brand, using up to 1,000 60-kg bags of coffee produced by women growers. The brand’s 100% Colombian coffee is available in 17,000 Walmart stores, on Walmart.com, and on the Dios Mio website.
All Dios Mio coffee is processed and threshed at Almacafé facilities, then shipped directly from Colombia to U.S. consumers—reducing costs by avoiding inventory storage in the United States.
Expanding Capacity and Efficiency
Almacafé is increasing its national threshing capacity, now totaling 170,000 bags per month, with plans to reach 200,000 bags per month by the end of 2025. Recent expansions include a 50% capacity increase in Santa Marta, 30% in Armenia, and new facilities in Pasto. The company also plans to relocate its Garzón (Huila) operation to Popayán, a city currently lacking a threshing plant.
To improve logistics, Almacafé will install refrigerated silos in Popayán, Pitalito, Armenia, and Santa Marta, with the first silo—costing COP 6 billion—scheduled to open in Armenia in Q3 2025. These upgrades aim to reduce transportation inefficiencies and preserve coffee quality.
Almacafé is also producing and exporting coffee capsules, a rapidly growing segment of the coffee business.
Innovation and Sustainability
In June, Cenicafé introduced three new high-quality varieties—Colombia Cocoon, Castalia, and Celestra—which are already being planted.
“Their cup profiles surpass even the famous Geisha variety,” Bahamón said. “By 2027, we expect this to become a reality.”
He also emphasized the importance of adopting harvesting technology in Colombia’s steep coffee slopes, similar to methods used successfully in Minas Gerais, Brazil.
“We cannot assume that what’s possible in Brazil can’t be done in Colombia,” he added.
So far in 2025, Colombia has renovated 71,000 hectares planted with the Castillo 2.0 variety, aiming for 100,000 hectares by year-end. Bahamón urged growers to increase fertilizer use, noting that although 900,000 tonnes are needed annually, current purchases are only slightly above 50% of that requirement.
By Diana Delgado
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
