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Corn Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

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Corn Begins the Year with a Slight Increase in Chicago as the Market Awaits the New WASDE Report

  • Bullish
  • Strong global consumption;
  • USDA projects lower global stocks for the 2025/26 crop;
  • Exports remain robust in the United States;
  • Outlook points to reduced planted area in the U.S. for 2026;
  • Bearish
  • Increase in planted area for 2025/26 in Brazil;
  • Higher ending stocks in the United States;
  • Possibility of a negative revision in U.S. corn consumption.

CBOT

Wishing you a happy and prosperous 2026!

Corn futures contracts wrapped up the first week of the year with a slight increase on the CBOT. March/26 closed last Friday trading at US¢445.75/bu (+1.9%).

Intraday (15 min) March/26 Contract - CBOT

image 124946

Source: CBOT. Prepared by: StoneX.

In recent weeks, the USDA completed the publication of export sales data that had been delayed due to last year’s U.S. government shutdown. Corn export sales maintained strong momentum, reinforcing expectations of record shipments for the 2025/26 season.

Currently, sales support a potential positive revision in exports by the USDA. However, there is still significant uncertainty regarding the balance sheet that will be released today (01/12) in the afternoon, as part of the WASDE report.

A reduction in American crop yields is widely anticipated. However, this possible cut is expected to be accompanied by a decrease in domestic consumption figures, both for feed and, to a lesser extent, ethanol production. Market participants will rely on quarterly stock data to support these revisions.

Overall, this new report will be the key focus of the week. While a consumption cut could be bearish for corn, there remains significant uncertainty about what this will ultimately mean for U.S. carryout.

Brazil

Corn prices on the B3 ended the week slightly lower, with the March/26 contract closing last week at R$72.89 per bag (-1.6%).

Intraday (15 min) March/26 Contract - B3

image 124947

Source: B3. Prepared by: StoneX.

StoneX revised its projections for the 2025/26 corn crop. The main adjustment was made to yield expectations for the first corn crop in the state of Santa Catarina. Expectations for second-crop corn production remain at 105.8 million tonnes, with total production projected at 134.4 million tonnes.

Corn exports in 2025 closed the year at nearly 41 million tonnes. Expectations for January 2026 are positive: ANEC estimates first-week exports at 1.25 million tonnes, raising the possibility of surpassing January 2025, when total exports reached 3.6 million tonnes. This trend is further reinforced by improved competitiveness of Brazilian corn compared to Argentina’s, which is currently one of the most expensive in the world, as well as U.S. corn at the time of writing. As such, the prospects for tighter supply in the first half of the year are strengthening.

Argentina

Corn crop conditions in Argentina have deteriorated. After reaching 87% of crops in good/excellent condition in mid-December, last week’s update from the Bolsa de Cereales indicated that 75% of the area remains in the optimal category. Despite the decline in recent weeks, this level is still above the average of recent years.

As such, with expanded planted acreage and productivity that, so far, appears promising, Argentina’s crop (which will begin harvesting around February) is expected to grow. Coupled with a reduction in export taxes from 9.5% to 8.5%, announced by the government in December, the country may become a highly competitive export origin this year.

Futures Contracts Traded on CBOT (US¢/bu)

image 124948

Source: CME. Prepared by: StoneX.

Futures Contracts Traded on B3 (R$/sc)

image 124949image-20250902142429-4

Source: B3. Prepared by: StoneX.

Spot Prices in Brazil (USD/60kg bag)

image 124950image-20250902142435-5

Source: StoneX.

INDICATORS 

 
  • Grains & Oilseeds

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