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Silver Faces Another Deficit in 2026

By: Tom Pawlicki, Senior Specialist, Market Intelligence

The sharp rally in silver prices in late 2025 reached a crescendo in January this year but prompted changes in the market’s underlying fundamentals. Physical demand has since been rationed and investment flows reversed, which may indicate that investors will face a future with thinner liquidity and increased volatility. That may act as a drag on prices in the near-term, however, with favorable news today on the war with Iran, the silver market could find renewed hope for a rally based on a turn back toward potential US rate cuts.

A new long-term outlook from the Silver Institute on Wednesday showed that some fundamental demand shifted away from silver due to high prices in 2025. Total demand declined 2.3% in 2025 from 2024 and reached the lowest level since 2021. It continued a trend of weakening demand along with the prior two years. Demand declined 6.8% in 2023 and fell another 3.3% in 2024 after surging in 2021 and 2022 in the wake of Covid. The average yearly change in demand in the seven years from 2018-2024 is +3.0%, so the decline in 2025 demand showed normal market rationing. Weakness in 2025 was seen almost across the balance sheet with the exception of investment. Industrial demand fell partly due to weakness in photovoltaics, while photography continued its long-term systemic decline. Jewelry demand fell 8% to 189.3 Moz due to rationing from high prices, especially in India. Silverware demand fell 21% from a year ago to 42.1 Moz for the same reason.

Demand from investors cushioned the demand side of the balance sheet by rising 14% in the coin & bar category, and 312% in Exchange Traded Products. The ETP category rose to 278.1 Moz in 2025 from 67.5 Moz in 2024. A global number for ETF holdings from Reuters shows a slightly smaller increase but strong nonetheless.

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The supply side saw mine production rise 2.8% to reach 846.6 Moz. It followed a 1.6% gain in 2024 and was favorable compared to the 2018-2024 average of -0.6%. Total supply rose 6.9% thanks to an additional bump from recycling, which reached its highest level in 13 years amid increased recycling of jewelry and silverware. Supply from hedging rose 44.7 Moz.

The balance between supply and demand showed a narrower deficit of 40.3 Moz compared to a deficit of 137.9 Moz in 2024. It marked the fifth consecutive shortfall and added pressure on global inventories, although it was the smallest deficit since the last surplus in 2020.

While the supply/demand deficit has been an ongoing issue for silver for several years, the impact of potential tariffs was another issue which bolstered prices in 2025. In anticipation of that potential, massive amounts of silver were brought to CME vaults in the US from overseas (mostly London) in an attempt to eventually draw from non-tariffed stocks. CME inventories rose from ~315 Moz at the end of 2024 to a peak of 531 Moz in early October, 2025. Tariffs on precious metals were taken off the table by President Trump during the April 2nd Liberation Day announcement, and that decision was affirmed again in August. A majority of the silver that went to the US came from London which severely tightened that market’s ability to respond to demand surges elsewhere. Demand from Indian consumers surged in October, which forced silver to be sent from London at the same time that US inventories at the CME were at record highs. Lease rates then surged as a result of the lack of liquidity which caused silver to be sent back to London. Silver was designated a critical mineral by the US in November 2025, but metal has flowed out of CME vaults since the October peak. Inventories currently stand near 320 Moz which is very near its level at end-2024.

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The silver market’s progression through the manic rally in 2025, the temporary surge in Indian demand, and the squeeze on London supplies has fueled an aftermath of weakness in the last 2 1/2 months, and futures prices are 32% off their peak on January 29. Additional strength in prices can’t be ruled out, however, as the Silver Institute projects another supply/demand deficit in 2026 of 46.3 Moz compared to the 40.3 Moz deficit in 2025. It said that it expects liquidity to generally be thinner, lease rates more volatile and price moves likely to be larger than investors have grown used to.

Both silver and gold traded lower during the war with Iran, and there was good news today on that front. The Strait of Hormuz was opened by Iran and the country agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely. Oil prices fell ~11% on the news and WTI is back near $80/bbl. If that trend toward a successful conclusion to the war with Iran and lower oil prices continues, it could return the US economy back to where it was before the war began. That would suggest lower inflation, a slowdown in economic growth, and the possibility of rate cuts. All of those could all be good for silver prices once again.

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