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SPR Approaching 43-Year Low

By: Tom Pawlicki, Senior Specialist, Market Intelligence

Significant withdrawals have been made from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve since mid-March due to the war with Iran, and their current trajectory suggests that they will soon be at the lowest in nearly 43-years. Oil prices would seemingly make an upside reaction to that possibility, however, the futures curve and other indicators suggest that investors expect the war to end sooner rather than later.

Another 7.99 mln bbls were withdrawn from the reserve in yesterday’s weekly inventory report from the EIA and brought total withdrawals since the week ending March 20 to 58.323 mln bbls. The overall level of the SPR is at 357.1 mln bbls, which would put it just 9.9 mln bbls above the most recent major low in June 2023 at 347.2 mln bbls. Strategic reserves have been falling at an average of 8.0 mln bbls each week in the last six weeks, so a move below the June 2023 low could be made in the next week or two. Once that is done, the SPR would be at the lowest inventory level since mid-August 1983.

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The last 18 months of the Biden administration and the first 14 months of the Trump administration saw a build of 68.2 mln bbls in that 32 month period, however, a nearly equal-sized amount has been withdrawn in just the last six weeks. the SPR follows a similar adage to the stock market when rises are like taking the escalator up, while withdrawals are like taking the elevator down. The chart below shows historical data along with the EIA’s latest forecast from its May 12 Short-Term Energy Outlook. The EIA projects the SPR falling to a low of 243.5 mln bbls by September and holding there until June 2027 when inventories begin building again. The EIA’s next update to its forecast will be on June 9 and the figures below could change, considering that the situation with the war has not progressed much since the last update three weeks ago.

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The total withdrawals from the US SPR of 58.323 mln bbls are part of the March 11 directive from the Paris-based IEA in which 400 mln bbls of oil reserves would be made available by participating countries. As of May 8, there had been around 164 mln bbls released globally.

The war with Iran resulted in an initial spike in oil prices. WTI retested that peak in early April while Brent made an incremental new high in late April. There has been a bit of uncertainty as to why prices have not moved much higher than the March and April peaks. December 2026 WTI traded near $80 today while Brent was $86, and indicates that the market believes that the war will be over by then and Hormuz reopened. Demand destruction and supply growth are additional factors, along with the construction of pipelines that bypass Hormuz. Nonetheless, the current state of the SPR could be making bullish headlines in coming weeks.

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