StoneX logo

Sugar and Ethanol Daily Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

What can be expected for sugar production in Europe?
 
Weather dynamics and use of neonicotinoids are at the center of attention

After damages to agricultural productivity due to the adverse weather and a high aphid infestation rate (yellow virus transmitters), sugar production should recover in the European Union in 2021/22 (Oct-Sept). This perspective follows the positive weather of recent months and the emergency release of neonicotinoids, a class of pesticide used to control the disease. 

Based on this, the European Commission has positively revised its projections for sugar supply in the current cycle, which is expected to reach 16.1 million tonnes, a volume that represents an annual increase of 11.0%. When considering UK production as well, this estimate is in line with StoneX projections, which have long pointed to 17.2 million tonnes of white sugar supply in the region. 

Despite greater domestic availability, the Commission expects stronger sugar imports than in 2020/21 at 2.2 million tonnes, or 100,000 tonnes more. This is the result of an expected higher domestic use in the current cycle, which should reach 14.6 million tonnes, a 3.5% increase in the crop-over-crop comparison. 

Sugar production in the European Union and United Kingdom (million tonnes)
image 30487
*Estimated. Sources: European Commission & StoneX. Design: StoneX. 
In a long-term horizon, however, demand for sugar can be reduced by changes in consumption patterns, which tends to make the region a net sugar exporter from 2027/28. 
On the 2022/23 crop, the allowed use of neonicotinoids continues to be one of the main discussions about beet crops’ productivity. Although France has approved its use, Germany has not allowed applications in order to mitigate environmental damage, which, on the other hand, can hinder beets’ productive potential in the country. 
This condition is aggravated by the warmer temperatures of recent weeks, a trend that is expected to continue until the beginning of April and which, consequently, increases the risk of aphid infestation. In light of this weather situation, the United Kingdom also approved the use of neonicotinoids in 2022. 
In terms of rains, models also point to within-normal moisture in the coming months, which is positive for field work advancement, as well as development of the crops that will be processed in the next cycle. 
Although the allowed use of neonicotinoids and the prospects of regular rainfall may favor beet productivity in some countries, there is little room for production gains via acreage increase. Specifically in France, the Ministry of Agriculture (Agreste) forecasts a 3% YoY area decline in 2022/23, which may be close to 400,000 hectares. If confirmed, this may be the fifth consecutive crop with planted area loss in the country. A similar scenario is expected for Poland, given higher attractiveness of cereals and rapeseed, which also present lower production costs. 
Based on this discussion, we expect a slight drop in sugar production by the bloc in 2022/23. These points will need to be closely monitored in the coming weeks in order to assess the productive potential of the European Union and the United Kingdom.
Finally, the market also monitors the move higher in the energy complex, which could stimulate Indian investments to reach E20 by 2023 in order to decrease its dependence on the global oil sector. Following this dynamic, the sugar #11 May/22 contract closed the ICE/NY session accumulating a daily increase of 1.6% to 18.93 c/lb. However, the 9-day RSI already exceeds 70 points, indicating an overbought situation in the market. 
 
Tabela de indicadores
image 30652
 
 
 
  • Renewable Fuels

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
 
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
 
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Related articles for Renewable Fuels

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan Suderman
Arlan Suderman
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.