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The MarketWatch Update

By: US RJO - Scott Magnuson, CTA, Analyst

June 10, 2026 

It's Baaack....

image-20260610124638-1

 Today’s Market News and Trading Highlights

Equity markets continued to slump and crude oil rallied after President Trump posted a message essentially saying that Iran had “taken too long to negotiate a deal,” and that “now they will have to pay the price!”

Additional volatility ramped up after this morning’s consumer inflation data, which came in hot and elevated but not sizzling.  Inflation is drifting higher once again.  

Traders initial reaction centered on the “good news – bad news” aspect of our nations current situation. So let's take a look... 

The bad news is that inflation is going higher. The good news is that the May CPI data clearly identifies that the main inflationary factor is all about energy prices

Now the optimist would say then that this inflationary cycle is transitory, and that it will quickly pass once the war is over and the Strait of Hormuz is opened again.  And the pessimist would say that the Strait of Hormuz isn’t likely to fully open for some time Adding that the global energy deficit will most likely get worse before it gets better, even if the Strait were to open tomorrow.  And that’s not going happening anytime soon.

We must remind ourselves that sustained energy based inflation shows up in just about every other category sooner or later.  But it eventually hits them all.  Higher freight costs, packaging costs, transportation, heating and cooling costs and on and on... eventually end up raising prices for everything.

And beyond that, Today was all about... 

yet another rally in Crude oil, plunging Precious Metals, but firmer Ag prices... let's dig in 

Spot gold sank over 3% to its lowest level since late March. Silver followed in sympathy.  The hopes for a renewed rally is over for the time being folks.  Time to consider the wisdom of the the short bias going forward.  Keep an open mind...  While geopolitical friction usually boosts safe-haven assets, today's CPI pegged annual inflation now to 4.2%. This hot reading led traders to aggressively price in Fed rate hikes punishing non-yielding assets like bullion et al. 

Surprisingly, wheat jumped 12.5¢, while corn and soybeans traded higher due to solid export demand and shrinking crop ratings.  Triple-Digit Weather: Grains are reacting to intense National Weather Service heat advisories across the Midwest and Southern Plains, with temperatures projected to hit 107°F in Oklahoma and up to 110°F in Texas. 

Is anyone else noticing the recurring hotter and hotter summers we've been experiencing these past 7 years now!  Can you imagine if all of a sudden, a major drought hit us.  I remind you that all eyes are still focused from the pit on the 'potential' coming El Nino.... The floor says it's coming... I need to buffer it with acknowledging 'potential'.  We're looking into getting some length in the Corn. 

Livestock Outbreak Update

CoBank issued a critical alert warning that the New World screwworm has spread to New Mexico and Texas. Analysts warn that eradication may take years and could cost the Texas agricultural economy up to $1.8 billion.  We were three days ahead of the media news outlets here on the MWU and have begun to tip our toe into some short positions in these animals... Sell the rallies, but be careful and don't stick your neck out to quick just yet... at least that's the talk i'm getting from some of my sources right now...

(source contributors: Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, St n X- MI, AP, BBC, LME, CME Grp., ICE, FCL Ltd. CNN)

Tomorrows Key Trading Reports

08:30 ET:  PPI  For: May | Trading Impact: High | Forecast: 0.8% | Prior: 1.4% 

08:30 ET:  Core PPI  For: May | Trading Impact: High | Forecast: 0.5% | Prior: 1.0% 

08:30 ET:  Initial Claims  For: 06/06 | Trading Impact: High | Forecast: 220K | Prior: 215K 

08:30 ET:  Continuing Claims  For: 05/30 | Trading Impact: High | Forecast: NA | Prior: 1786K

10:30 ET:  EIA Natural Gas Inventories  For: 06/06 | Trading Impact: Low | Forecast: NA | Prior: +95 bcf 

(source: Briefing Data Svc) 

New Trading Suggestions

December Corn Position to Consider: There is no audio update this evening regarding this situation

image-20260610150225-2

Simple 'Toe in the Water' Tactic: This is a Buy and Hold Legacy Trade Alert!

Consider Buying the December Corn at 4.55 Stop GTC.  If filled risk to 4.40 initially. First objective is a move to 4.67. Additional positions to be added as market performance dictates. Call if need be to discuss more about... 

 (chart graphics: ICE Data Svc's-FS, Bloomberg, FCtL Ltd, Reuters, CQG)

*    *    *    *    *  

 Current Open Trades and Position Management

Continue working an open order to sell the July Cocoa at 3730 Stop GTC.  If filled risk only to 3860 initially.  First downside objective before trailing that stop would be a price print at 3640. 

We sold the August Live Cattle at 240.00 today for the books and were stopped out later in the days session at 242.40 for a loss of 2.40pts or -$960.  We will stay sidelined this market for Thursday as we watch the beef trade and consider a second attempt at the short side.    

Hold short the October Sugar from 14.48.  Keep your protective buy stop order at 14.95 GTC.  First downside objective remians 14.10.  

Market Watch-List of Developing Opportunities

  Dec Corn, July Cotton, July Copper

________________________________________________________________________________  

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Scott Magnuson, CTA : 888.861.1755

scott.magnuson@stonex.com 

All futures and options strategies presented involve risk of loss and do not take into account individual investment objectives or risk tolerance. Trade responsibly. The strategies provided do not account for commission deductions and fees. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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