Commodity markets have spent much of the past two years discounting the war in Ukraine after trade flows proved more resilient than initially feared. That assumption is being tested again as Russia intensifies attacks beyond the battlefield and directly targets export infrastructure. The focus has shifted from military positioning to logistics, shipping routes, and port capacity. For traders, the question is no longer whether war risk exists, but how quickly it could matter.
Arlan Suderman, StoneX Chief Commodities Economist, examines how renewed pressure on Black Sea exports is gradually filtering back into wheat and energy pricing.
Key Themes
Escalating attacks on Odessa are constraining Ukrainian agricultural exports.
War risk remains lightly priced but is higher than it was weeks ago.
Thin holiday liquidity is amplifying sensitivity to geopolitical headlines.
Wheat markets have been among the most sensitive to renewed disruption in the Black Sea because of their direct exposure to Ukrainian export capacity. Suderman notes that Odessa is now operating at roughly twenty percent capacity, significantly slowing shipments. The damage is visible, with reports of soybean oil spilling through city streets after strikes on storage tanks. As Suderman puts it, “that risk is greater today than it was a week ago”, even if outright shutdowns remain unlikely.
Energy Markets Feel the Spillover
Energy prices are responding not just to Ukraine but to a widening maritime conflict involving sanctioned Russian oil flows. Suderman highlights that Ukraine has expanded attacks on Russia’s shadow fleet beyond the Black Sea into the Caspian and Mediterranean Seas. That escalation has drawn direct threats from Moscow toward ships serving Ukraine’s allies. While supply has not yet been disrupted, the reminder that “there’s very little war risk in these markets right now” carries an implicit warning about how quickly that can change.
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