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Biomass-based diesel has generated about 5.3 billion RINs, only 59% of the 2026 target under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard. The gap between RIN generation and the Renewable Fuel Standard target is a key source of support for soybean oil biofuel demand, because closing it would require credit generation at a pace never seen before. U.S. soybean oil stocks had already fallen to a 21-month low on strong domestic demand, so how much feedstock the biofuel sector still needs matters for every soybean oil buyer and crusher. Policy decisions from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency now decide when that demand actually lands.
Isabela Garcia, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX Brazil, produces commodity market intelligence and pricing research for commercial agricultural clients across South America. Her work covers grain, oilseed and related markets, where soybean oil demand from the biofuel sector feeds directly into pricing and risk management decisions.
RIN generation under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard works as a live gauge of soybean oil biofuel demand, because refiners must hold the credits to prove they met their blending obligations. "Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, every gallon of biodiesel or renewable diesel produced generates a credit called a RIN, or renewable identification number," Garcia explains. Garcia describes RIN generation as "a good indicator of biofuel and indirectly of soybean oil demand". As a result, the pace of RIN generation is one of the clearest signals of how much soybean oil the U.S. biofuel sector is absorbing.
Biomass-based diesel, the D4 RIN category, has generated about 5.3 billion RINs, just 59% of the 2026 Renewable Fuel Standard target. Meeting the mandate would require RIN generation in the final months of the year to run at a pace never seen before. For soybean oil, the shortfall translates into a large block of biofuel feedstock demand still to be filled before the compliance year closes. According to Garcia, "the gap is still large and there's a source of support for feedstock demand."
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency granted small refinery exemptions equal to about 1.6 billion RINs for 2025, almost twice what was initially expected, putting pressure on both RINs and soybean oil. The agency has since formally proposed reallocating the exempted volumes over the next few years, but the split is unresolved. "We don't know if it'll be reallocated to 2026," Garcia says, "or split between this year and next." Until that question is settled, the size of the near-term boost to soybean oil biofuel demand stays uncertain, even though Garcia points to "an increase in soybean oil demand in the U.S. linked to the biofuel sector."
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--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Isabela Garcia, StoneX Brazil, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst
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The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard turns every gallon of biodiesel and renewable diesel into a credit, which makes RIN generation a direct read on soybean oil feedstock demand. A wide gap to the annual target supports that demand, while EPA small refinery exemptions and an unresolved reallocation cloud when it arrives.
October 20 – Stock futures are pointing to a lower open to start the day, with the tech sector bracing for earnings from SpaceX and Netflix after today’s close, followed by Meta, Tesla, Texas Instruments, and IBM tomorrow. Eye-popping AI spending will be in focus, particularly as financing costs rise, with investors needing to see corresponding revenue growth to justify additional spending. The VIX is elevated slightly, hovering near 18.7 at the time of writing. The dollar is modestly lower to start the day, off roughly 0.2% to trade near 101.75. Treasury yields are starting the day mixed, with 2-year yields slightly higher to trade near 4.765%, while long-term yields are slightly lower, with the 10-year near 5.105% and 30-year just below 5.43%. Crude oil has carved out fresh highs this morning, with nearby WTI breaking above $100 for the first time in a month earlier in the session but now hanging near $99.70, while nearby Brent posted a five-month high near $112 but now trades near $110.30 at the time of writing. The ags are looking at a mostly higher start, with the grains and oilseeds looking for some turnaround Tuesday action.
October 19 – Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the week, with signs of a rotation of money flow back into tech after last week’s ugly selloff, as the Nasdaq shows the strongest open while the Dow Jones looks to start the day in the red, a reverse in course from last week’s trade. The VIX has fallen notably from Friday’s surge to a three-month high above 22, now hovering near 18.6 at the time of writing. The dollar is just above unchanged to start the morning, sitting near 101.83 after falling from the 18-month high put in near 103 last Wednesday. Treasury yields are looking to start the week modestly higher, with 2-year yields just above 4.75%, 10-year yields above 5.10%, and 30-year yields at 5.443%. Crude oil is taking back some of Friday’s sharp gains that pushed nearby WTI to a one-month high and nearby Brent to a five-month high, as both are down roughly 1.5% on the day to trade near $97.60 and $107.90, respectively. Elsewhere in the commodity sector, the ags are quietly mixed to start the week.
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