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USDA Attache: Vietnam’s 2023-2024 Coffee Crop Revised Down to 27.5 Million Bags

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

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USDA Attache: Vietnam’s 2023-2024 Coffee Crop Revised Down to 27.5 Million Bags 
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor
alexis.rubinstein@stonex.com

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – In the latest USDA attache report, Vietnam’s 2023/24 coffee production foreacst is lowered 3.8 million bags to 27.5 million bags due to unfavorable weather conditions as a result of climate change and El Nino climate patterns. In addition, Post lowered MY 2022/23 coffee production to 27.2 million bags green bean equivalent (GBE) due to unfavorable weather conditions leading to low cherry survival rates and farmers shifting production to more profitable fruit trees.

According to the Vietnam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration forecasts, the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) phenomenon is expected to return in the last three months of 2023. Due to climate change, combined with El Nino, weather forecasts may be unfavorable for MY2023/24 coffee harvests. Despite the on-cycle year, Post lowered forecast MY 2023/24 coffee production to 27.5 million bags (GBE), including 26.62 million bags (GBE) of Robusta. MY 2022/23 Robusta coffee production witnessed a decline compared to the previous crop due to unfavorable weather condition resulting in lower cherry survival rates. Furthermore, the cultivation area in the Central Highland regions witnessed a downtrend due to crop shifting or intercropping with other profitable fruit trees. In the off-cycle year, the coffee yield saw lower performance compared to the previous crop. Based on these factors, Post lowered estimated MY 2022/23 total coffee production to 27.2 million bags (GBE), including 26.3 million bags (GBE) of Robusta.

CONSUMPTION
According to the General Statistics Office (GSO), the first eight months of CY 2023 witnessed 15 percent revenue growth in Vietnam's food and beverage and lodging services compared to the same period in the previous year. International tourist arrivals are expected to recover 84 percent in the second quarter and fully recover in the fourth quarter of CY 2023, driving robust growth in the food and beverage industry. Vietnam has approximately 500 thousand coffee shops from coffee-store chains of local brands and other foreign brands to sidewalk cafes. Domestic coffee consumption currently accounts for 10 percent of total production and the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA) is continuing to promote higher domestic consumption, particularly consumption of ground and instant coffee. However, with the continuous increase in domestic prices and a 3 percent increase in Vietnam's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase, costs will likely constrain consumer demand in the coming months. Post lowered forecast MY 2023/24 domestic coffee consumption by 200,000 bags to 3.2 million bags (GBE).

TRADE
Exports Post revised its MY2023/24 total coffee exports forecast to 25 million bags despite increased export prices. Total coffee exports in MY 2022/23 reached 27.7 million bags (GBE) according to Vietnam Customs and General Statistics Office’ data, a 4.5 percent decrease in volume compared to the previous year due to lower ending stock in MY 2021/22. However, export revenue in MY 2022/23 increased by 3 percent to USD 4 billion due to high export prices.

The European Union (EU) remained the largest export market for Vietnam, accounting for 37 percent of total export volume. Exports to the EU declined by 7 percent in volume and 0.3 percent in revenue, reaching at 615 thousand tons and USD 1.4 billion. Inflation and high interest rates impacted coffee consumers in the EU, leading to a decline in European coffee imports. There was a 6 percent decrease in exports to Germany, the largest export market for Vietnam. Exports to Spain dropped 13 percent and experts to Belgium fell sharply by 42 percent. In contrast, exports to Italy grew 6 percent and exports to the United States grew by 4 percent in MY 2022/23.

Green Bean Exports
Post lowered forecast MY 2023/24 green bean exports to 23 million bags and estimated MY 2022/23 green bean exports to 25.4 million bags due to reduced production and a drop in stocks. According to data from Vietnam Customs, Vietnam exported 17.8 million bags of green beans in the first eight months of the calendar year 2023 valued at USD 2.3 billion. This represents a 5.8 percent decrease in volume but a 2.4 percent increase in value compared to the same period in 2022. Export volume declined to Germany, Spain, Belgium, and the UK, while exports increased to Italy, the United States, Japan, and Russia. Arabica exports fell 27 percent by volume and 35 percent by value, amounting to 560 thousand bags and USD 133 million.

Soluble and Roasted Exports
Post lowered forecasts MY2023/24 soluble and roasted coffee exports to 2 million bags and lowered estimated MY2022/23 soluble and roasted coffee exports to 2.34 million bags. According to Vietnam Customs data, during the first eight months of the 2023 calendar year, the export value of soluble and roasted coffee experienced a 24 percent increase, reaching USD 530 million, accounting for 18 percent of total export value. The primary export markets for soluble coffee include the European Union, China, Japan, and Indonesia.

Imports
Post raised coffee import forecasts for MY2023/24 170,000 to 720,000 bags to compensate for reduced domestic supply. Estimated coffee imports for MY2022/23 are also raised slightly 50 550,000 bags. According to statistics from Trade Data Monitor, LLC, during MY 2022/23 Vietnam imported 365 thousand bags of green coffee beans, primarily sourced from key markets such as Indonesia, Brazil, the European Union, and Colombia. Concurrently, imports of processed coffee products decreased to 135 thousand bags, with the primary sources being Malaysia and China.

PRICES
The Average export prices in MY2022/23 reached USD 2,441/MT, peaking at USD 3,151 per ton in September. The price increase was attributed largely to reduced supply and to a lesser degree a trend towards producing higher-quality and higher-value products. In addition, global economic challenges such as inflation caused consumer demand to shift towards lower cost Robusta. Increased demand for 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Million Bags (60kgs) MY 2018/19 MY 2019/20 MY 2020/21 MY 2021/22 MY 2022/23 Robusta coffee during a time of limited supply in Vietnam helped boost prices. High fertilizer and fuel prices have also increased production costs.

Domestic coffee prices in the MY 2022/23 grew approximately 3 percent compared to the same period last year. Prices reached VND 68,000 per kilogram in September, their highest level in the last 30 years.

STOCKS
Post lowered forecast MY 2023/24 ending stocks sharply to 359 thousand tons. Strong export demand during a period of limited supply has led to a dramatic drop in stocks. High domestic prices combined with high interest rates have also made traders and exporters hesitant to hold stocks. Post also lowered estimated MY 2022/23 ending stocks to 339 thousand tons.

 

 

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