By: Fiona Cincotta, Senior Market Analyst
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is triggering a rapid unwind of geopolitical risk across global markets. As of 17 April 2026, the resumption of energy and fertiliser flows is removing a key supply shock that had driven volatility across assets. This shift is forcing a repricing of oil, currencies and equities, with investors reassessing inflation and growth expectations. The speed of this adjustment highlights how tightly global markets remain linked to critical trade infrastructure and geopolitical developments.
Fiona Cincotta, StoneX Senior Market Analyst, has extensive experience analysing cross-asset market reactions to macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts. Her perspective is grounded in tracking how energy price shocks and currency flows interact, giving her a distinct view on how quickly risk sentiment can reverse when supply disruptions ease.
Oil prices are leading the unwind of geopolitical risk as flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz. Fiona Cincotta confirms that "oil prices have fallen sharply, down 10%, moving back toward $80 per barrel", reflecting the rapid removal of supply disruption fears. This decline is easing cost pressures across global economies, particularly those heavily reliant on imported energy. As a result, lower oil prices are directly reducing inflation expectations and improving the outlook for growth-sensitive sectors.
The U.S. dollar is declining as safe-haven demand unwinds alongside geopolitical tensions. Cincotta highlights that "the U.S. dollar has weakened by around 0.5%, trading back at pre-war levels", signalling a shift away from defensive positioning. This movement is encouraging capital to rotate into riskier assets, including equities and higher-yielding currencies. However, the sustainability of this trend depends heavily on whether geopolitical stability is maintained in the coming weeks.
The Strait of Hormuz is a key global trade route for energy and fertilisers, with around 20 percent of global energy supply passing through it. Any disruption can significantly impact prices and market sentiment.
Oil prices fell because the reopening reduced supply risk, removing the geopolitical premium that had been built into prices during the conflict.
The main risk is that markets may be pricing in a full resolution to the conflict, which could reverse if peace talks fail or tensions escalate again.
From detailed guides on how to trade major assets to quarterly market outlooks and special reports, we offer FREE access to the articles you need to successfully implement "global macro" style trading!
Sign Up See our financial videos hub
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Fiona Cincotta, StoneX Senior Market Analyst
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
WTI and Brent crude are moving to different beats as a possible U.S. Iran deal reshapes the oil market. The two benchmarks are pricing Strait of Hormuz risk in their own ways, and the gap between them says a lot about where crude goes next.
August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.
The oil market keeps watching the Strait of Hormuz, but the tighter pressure on fuel is building in refining. With a large share of global capacity offline and unplanned outages carrying no repair timeline, diesel supply faces three fresh risks before winter.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
