With risk asset momentum fading and a holiday thinned calendar looming, markets face a delicate balance between complacency and the next volatility jolt. StoneX Global Head of Content John Kicklighter outlines where the pressure points lie.
“The rebound that we had from a slightly less than expected aggression from the US-based reciprocal tariffs is probably going to be short lived”. Kicklighter notes that the 90-day countdown on wider reciprocal tariffs leaves little room for optimism, especially as “so far the negotiations haven’t sounded particularly encouraging”. Until clarity emerges, lingering policy risk is likely to cap equity enthusiasm.
Europe’s extended Easter break leaves U.S. desks trading in isolation on Monday. “That inconsistency will provide some thinner liquidity,” Kicklighter warns. In such conditions, even minor headlines can “generate some very sharp movement in the markets”, amplifying any surprise on the data or trade fronts.
Tuesday is pivotal: the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report arrive alongside Tesla earnings. “I think the markets are going to pay a lot more attention to these reports in this go around”. Boeing results follow on Wednesday, while global PMIs, German and UK business surveys, and U.S. durable goods fill out the week, offering a comprehensive health check on growth.
“We should always look at the traditional markets, the ones that are really representative of sentiment”, Kicklighter says, pointing to the S&P 500. On the higher beta edge, Bitcoin offers a speculative lens, while USD/CNH sits “at the forefront of the pressures that these two countries are putting on each other”. Gold’s revived safe haven allure and an increasingly sensitive VIX round out his volatility dashboard. Together, these indicators will signal whether investors are merely dozing—or already bracing—for the next shock..
What are the major events and indicators on tap for the global economy that could charge volatility in markets and reshape deeper fundamental themes? Sign up for the updated Global Macro Calendar updated each week with a two week look ahead of the top events!
Sign Up
---- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: John Kicklighter, StoneX Global Head of Content
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
US indices have led sentiment to fresh highs this past week even as the fundamental backdrop struggles to present a solid foothold. Will thin liquidity aid or hamper the swell and what does the event risk ahead propose?
A softer run of U.S. data is doing more to move the U.S. dollar than any chart, with a jobs report and an inflation print set to land back to back. A cooler U.S. CPI report would hand the Federal Reserve room to ease, and that prospect is already loosening the dollar's grip.
The euro-dollar has bounced off multi-year support, but the more important shift is happening in interest rate expectations. As bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike fade, the U.S. dollar is quietly losing the tailwind that carried its recent strength.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
