By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
As global attention turns once again to US-China relations, market participants in the grains and oilseeds space are watching every move. StoneX VP of Clearing and Execution Sales Bertrand Oesterle offers a comprehensive look at the signals moving markets right now.
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Oesterle highlights that the softening rhetoric from the Trump administration could bring China back into the US soybean market. As the world’s top buyer of soybeans, even slight shifts in policy signal potentially large demand surges. This is compounded by internal US factors, including upcoming EPA decisions on biodiesel blending, that could further support soybean oil.
China’s soybean imports have plummeted to 3.5 million tons in March, about one-third less than last year. US export pace has slipped accordingly, from 5% to 2% above target. Oesterle also points to biodiesel as a key factor in domestic soybean demand. While recent crush data was “slightly disappointing”, overall production remains strong, as the market awaits an EPA decision on potentially raising the biodiesel mandate.
Speculative positioning has already responded, with traders moving from short to long positioning on soybeans, according to recent CFTC data.
Beyond soybeans, the rapid rise in the euro against the dollar—from below 1.10 to highs of 1.175—has created major pricing challenges for European wheat exporters. Oesterle notes producers are concerned they may not be competitive by the time of harvest. Without proper currency hedging, he notes that these producers are increasingly vulnerable to margin erosion.
Oesterle also reveals that despite favorable weather in some regions and the strong euro, wheat futures are setting a low benchmark for the upcoming season.
The Brazilian safrinha crop is still in the critical pollination phase and requires continued rainfall. In the US, planting has begun ahead of the five-year average but faces weather interruptions. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s production outlook is strong, with forecasts indicating a 14% year-on-year increase.
A major relief for traders came with the clarification around US port fees. Now applied on a per-voyage basis instead of fleet level, and with exemptions for vessels arriving empty to load US exports, the new structure is seen as more export-friendly.
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---- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing and Execution Sales
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Damage to Black Sea ports has stalled grain exports, but the more serious risk is now forming on the farm. Collapsed farmgate prices and a Russian fuel crisis have put part of the wheat harvest in question.
August 13 – The major stock indices traded quietly mixed overnight ahead of this morning’s weekly job numbers and producer price index data. Like Wednesday, this morning’s data was considered good as well, providing support for stocks while generally allowing Treasury yields to slip a bit lower. The VIX is trading near 14.4, which is just above yesterday’s new low for the year. The dollar index is trading near 99.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.64%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.15%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 per barrel, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel. Wheat prices again firmed overnight on geopolitical risks in the Black Sea Region, while corn and soybean prices pulled back modestly from yesterday’s big gains.
August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.
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