By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
Six separate supports have converged on grains and oilseeds at once, and the most consequential of them is no longer about ships. Russian wheat production is now at risk because blocked exports have collapsed farmgate prices to the point where some growers are questioning whether to harvest at all. Damage to Black Sea port infrastructure was initially read as a logistics problem, bullish while terminals are shut and bearish once cargo flows resume. That distinction matters, because a temporary bottleneck and a smaller crop carry very different consequences for supply into the next season.
Bertrand Oesterle is Vice President of Clearing and Execution Sales at StoneX in London, where he covers grains and oilseeds alongside other listed commodity products, which places the Black Sea export chain and the European crop balance among the markets he follows.
"The Russians and the Ukrainians have been hitting each other's vessels to the point where vessel owners are reluctant to get to Ukrainian or Russian ports to put their crew and their properties at risk", Oesterle says. Black Sea grain exports have consequently stalled at the terminal gate rather than at sea, with trucks and railcars unable to complete deliveries into port. Ukrainian strikes shifted from vessels to port infrastructure after the United States asked Ukraine to stop targeting ships bound for Russian terminals, widening the damage rather than containing it. Novorossiysk, the largest deep sea port in Russia, may take "a month to three months to redo or rebuild", he adds. The effect is a grain export chain that cannot clear inventory even where the crop itself is intact.
Russian wheat production is now exposed to a price problem rather than only a logistics one, because demand has disappeared alongside the export route. Buyers have stepped back from origination entirely while war risk keeps vessels away, and the resulting collapse has reached the farm. Oesterle is direct about the mechanism, observing that "no one wants to go to Ukraine or to Russia to get grains out of those countries because of the war risk, prices have absolutely plummeted because there's no current demand". Some growers are weighing whether harvest costs can be recovered at all, a calculation made harder by a fuel crisis stemming from repeated strikes on Russian refineries. The question facing the grain market is therefore no longer when Russian wheat moves, but how much of enters the balance.
Black Sea disruption has been treated as a timing problem, bullish while ports are shut and bearish once logistics normalize again. According to Oesterle, "some fear that maybe some of the Russian wheat is going to be left in the field", an outcome that would remove tonnage from the balance permanently rather than defer it. Ukraine faces the mirror image of the same constraint, needing roughly 11 million tonnes of temporary storage and turning to grain bags it does not currently hold, while Ukraine seeks alternative rail routes through Poland and Moldova. Whether the disruption resolves or compounds therefore depends on farmer behaviour in the fields rather than on port repair schedules. In his view, "if it becomes an output issue, if farmers don't harvest, then it is very different and it could be bullish for the longer term".
Access live prices, supply and demand data and actionable market commentary across commodities, equities, currencies and more. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a 14-day trial.
Sign up for a Market Intelligence trial today
--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX Media
--- Expert: Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX Vice President, Clearing and Execution Sales
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
A strong super El Niño has started, but the crop damage that would lift food prices is still expected to land between September and December. Indian wheat area and Southeast Asian palm oil production sit at the front of the transmission chain, with Brazil the larger unresolved question.
Damage to Black Sea ports has stalled grain exports, but the more serious risk is now forming on the farm. Collapsed farmgate prices and a Russian fuel crisis have put part of the wheat harvest in question.
August 13 – The major stock indices traded quietly mixed overnight ahead of this morning’s weekly job numbers and producer price index data. Like Wednesday, this morning’s data was considered good as well, providing support for stocks while generally allowing Treasury yields to slip a bit lower. The VIX is trading near 14.4, which is just above yesterday’s new low for the year. The dollar index is trading near 99.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.64%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.15%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 per barrel, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel. Wheat prices again firmed overnight on geopolitical risks in the Black Sea Region, while corn and soybean prices pulled back modestly from yesterday’s big gains.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
