Daily Coffee Report 8/12/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
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Cocoa and Coffee Prices Brace for Weather and Tariff Shocks
By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
Cocoa and Coffee Prices Brace for Weather and Tariff Shocks
Commodity traders and consumers alike are facing a challenging 2025 as cocoa and coffee markets remain reactive to a volatile blend of weather conditions and trade disruptions.
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Key Takeaways
- Cocoa volatility is driven by El Niño patterns and mid-crop weather uncertainty in West Africa
- U.S. tariffs on coffee imports are reshaping trade flows and price differentials between Robusta and Arabica
- Despite high prices, demand destruction in cocoa and coffee has been milder than expected
Cocoa Market Faces Mid-Crop and Weather Crossroads
Albert Scalla, StoneX Senior VP of Trading for Coffee, Cocoa, and Palm Oil, explains that although cocoa prices are down 25% in 2025, this follows a historic spike to nearly $13,000 per ton in late 2024. Volatility remains high, with daily price swings reaching levels that used to represent entire yearly movements. The critical factor is weather: “Everything goes back to weather,” Scalla says. The mid-crop season from April to September will be pivotal in determining whether a slight production surplus forecasted for 2025 materializes.
Coffee Prices Respond to Tariffs and Spot Market Buying
Arabica coffee reached a peak in February but has since dropped by about 15%. Tariffs introduced in early April added new uncertainty. Vietnam, a major Robusta exporter, faces a steep 46% duty, while Brazil faces 10%. “Most of the countries were hit with a 10% tariff… [Vietnam] got hit with 46%,” Scalla notes. This has already affected pricing and exporter profitability. Coffee is now a spot-driven market, with buyers avoiding long-term contracts due to price instability.
Consumption Trends Defy Expectations
Scalla emphasizes that despite sharp price increases, actual demand destruction has not matched analyst expectations. For cocoa, grindings (a proxy for consumption) were only down 3–4%, rather than the forecasted 5–10%. Similarly, while coffee prices have risen 220–240%, consumers have scaled back slightly but not dramatically.
Strategic Shifts in Global Supply Chains
If the 90-day tariff freeze ends with rates reverting to their April levels, there will likely be a shift in sourcing strategies. Importers may avoid heavily taxed Vietnamese Robusta and seek alternatives like Brazilian Conilon, which carries a lower tariff. “We do have an arbitrage,” says Scalla, pointing to dynamic changes in global supply routes. Ongoing freight legislation and geopolitical shipping risks further complicate the pricing landscape over the next 3 to 6 months.
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---- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Albert Scalla, StoneX Senior VP of Trading for Coffee, Cocoa, and Palm Oil
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Daily Coffee Report 8/11/26
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StoneX Coffee Team
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