By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
Tom Beney, Senior Vice President of Ocean Freight at StoneX, outlines how the U.S.-China 90-day tariff truce has disrupted global shipping patterns.
Since the May 11 announcement, container bookings from China to the U.S. have “more than quadrupled…we’re talking about tens of thousands of containers”, comments Beney. That surge drove spot rates for 40ft boxes from around $2,500 in April to over $9,000 at the peak, as carriers rushed to capture restocking demand. Beney continues to emphasize that this burst of activity reflects both producers pre-shipping inventory and retailers' scrambling to refill warehouses.
Shipping lines operate in fixed “strings” of vessels, and many had previously redeployed ships from the China–U.S. route to other lanes. Bringing them back hinges on consistent clarity in U.S. demand. “For them to bring that route back home, they need to see…consistent demand for their services into the U.S.,” notes Beney. Without sustained orders from major retailers, carriers will keep capacity rationed, keeping rates elevated.
Beney expects rates to remain high and possibly rise further during the 90-day window as restocking continues. However, he anticipates a normalization once peak demand subsides: “We will spike and then come back to a normal…relatively normal level for demand”. In his opinion, monitoring May through July retail-sales figures will be crucial to gauge whether carriers will restore full sailing schedules.
Unlike containerized trade, dry bulk and tanker markets are driven by China’s raw-materials imports. Recent macro directives aim to reduce soybean feed ratios, bolster local coal production, and expand renewables. These steps have throttled grain and coal imports and capped oil and gas shipments. Beney adds that steel-capacity cuts, as China shifts toward services, will further temper bulk-shipping demand over coming months.
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---- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Tom Beney, StoneX Senior Vice President of Ocean Freight
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