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StoneX Vice President of Fertilizer Josh Linville warns that weather relief may be fleeting as geopolitics tightens its grip on nutrient markets.
“It sure looks that way.” Linville says of Beijing’s customs inspections that precede any outflow of product. Rumours point to about 2 Mt of urea and 4 Mt of DAP leaving Chinese ports—well below the usual 5-10 Mt ranges. With China still “controlling the flows so that they don’t overdo what they’re doing”, global buyers should temper expectations of a flood of cheap supply.
Soaking storms across the Corn Belt have “been massive…great for the crop, but it’s great for the system”. By slowing fieldwork, the rains bought terminals time to replenish tight stocks that “just struggled to keep up with that demand”. Yet Linville cautions that once planting resumes, logistics will again be tested.
Manufacturers are “trying so, so hard to keep the price up”, floating $20/t list increases while quietly offering “that sweetheart deal”. Buyers counter that “supplies are very, very solid”. The resulting standoff leaves potash values steady for now, but any supply shock could tilt the balance.
Russia and Belarus together now export more potash than pre-invasion levels. Yet the EU is “truly going to take steps to block those flows” , aiming to stop financing Moscow’s war. Linville warns U.S. policy could pivot just as fast: “We could literally wake up tomorrow and see brand new tariffs on Russia”, erasing a key competitive source and lifting costs for farmers worldwide.
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---- Written by Gus Farrow
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
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