Daily Coffee Report 8/11/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Robusta Slump Deepens as Brazil Harvest Floods Market
Robusta Slump Deepens as Brazil Harvest Floods Market
With Brazil’s harvest in full swing, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Manager Fernando Maximiliano joined Johanna Botta to break down what’s behind the recent drop in global coffee prices.
Key Takeaways
- Brazil’s early harvest and low starting stocks triggered recent price volatility
- Global production recovery in Vietnam and Indonesia eases future supply concerns
- Weather remains the biggest wildcard for the upcoming 2026/27 crop
Brazil’s Role in Coffee Market Volatility
Coffee prices surged earlier this year due to critically low domestic stocks in Brazil and tight global supplies. As Maximiliano noted, Brazil entered 2024 with limited carryover stock and an industry relying on just-in-time inventory. “This combination of low supply and demand from the industry was explosive for prices”. Now, the shift is in motion. With harvesting well underway and availability increasing, pressure on prices has intensified.
Supply Dynamics Beyond Brazil
While Brazil remains the world’s largest producer and second-largest consumer, other countries are influencing the 2025/26 outlook. “The supply and demand balance for 2025/26 is not comfortable, but it is expected to be a little better than it was in 2024/25” said Maximiliano. Production rebounds in Vietnam and Indonesia are key contributors, helping ease the tight supply environment that defined the previous season.
Weather Risks Still Loom
The one factor that could alter this trend quickly is weather. A sharp drop in Brazilian temperatures forecast for June 25 has raised frost concerns, though uncertainty remains across regional models. “There is a certain level of uncertainty, but we have to watch these dropping temperatures”. Winter is just beginning in Brazil, and the threat of cold spells persists.
Looking Ahead to the 2026/27 Crop
Maximiliano emphasized the critical nature of the upcoming flowering season, starting in August. With five consecutive years of flowering disruptions, market sentiment hinges on weather cooperation. “If we see a delay in the rainfall... we could see a lower output in 2026, and then that would be bullish for the market”. As fundamentals shift, weather remains central to forecasting both near-term and long-term coffee price movements.
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--- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Fernando Maximiliano, StoneX Brazil Market Intelligence Manager
- Coffee
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