Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, outlines why expiring U.S. tariff suspensions and supportive crop weather are driving this week’s price action.
Key Takeaways
U.S. 90-day tariff pauses end between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning
Favorable 15-day Midwest outlook triggers double-digit corn and soy losses
EU and Vietnam deals hint at frameworks that could lift commodity demand
Tariff Deadlines Steer Market Sentiment
“Tariffs I think are going to be the primary story this week” states Suderman. Reciprocal duties set on April 2 resume for more than 100 nations if no agreement is reached, while 18 key countries race to finalise frameworks before Wednesday. Two accords—Britain and Vietnam—are already signed, and the European Commission signalled optimism after a Monday call with President Trump.
Weather Drives Grain Price Pressure
Return-from-holiday trading lived up to its reputation. Suderman notes traders “started dumping on the markets” once models showed a largely benign Midwestern 15-day forecast through the corn pollination period. Corn, soybeans and wheat opened with double-digit losses, shifting near-term focus squarely to temperature and precipitation over the next 30–45 days.
Crude Oil Resilience Versus OPEC Output
Overnight selling followed reports that OPEC will raise August output above expectations, yet crude “recovered and erased those losses by this morning’s trade”. Investors appear more fixated on potential global demand gains if multiple tariff deals stimulate growth.
China, EU and Shifting Trade Alliances
The Vietnam framework includes a 40% tariff on Chinese trans-shipments, a clause Suderman believes could recur elsewhere. “Some of those may be significantly positive for commodities”. Meanwhile, some scheduled EU-China anniversary events in Beijing have been quietly cancelled, underscoring strained ties and prompting Beijing to threaten retaliation. With BRICS leaders absent from last week’s Brazil summit, Suderman argues momentum has swung back toward Washington.
Looking Ahead
“The Ags look to be facing this weather market going forward, which for the time being in negative”, states Suderman, but tariff outcomes could spark volatility across all commodity classes. He adds that market participants will monitor any late-hour extensions, the status of EU negotiations, and China’s appetite for concessions should trade pressure intensify.
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