Josh Linville, StoneX VP of Fertilizer, assesses key global risks impacting nitrogen and phosphate trade in 2025.
Linville described how a recent attack on a fertilizer ship underscored the vulnerability of Red Sea shipping routes. Although rerouting is possible, it leads to higher freight costs and longer delivery times, straining fertilizer logistics.
While peace is unlikely in the short term, Linville noted that “this war cannot rage on forever”. He emphasized that even during conflict, Russian fertilizer exports continued, though often redirected. A peace agreement could re-enable direct trade routes and lower supply chain friction, helping farmers worldwide.
Access to Russian gas could radically alter the nitrogen landscape. “If maintenance has been kept on these facilities and they can refire, suddenly all those come back online”. This would boost production and reduce Europe’s reliance on external supply, easing global prices and tight supply conditions.
China has restricted exports to maintain low domestic prices and high stockpiles. If global prices stabilize, China could ease restrictions. However, phosphate exports may remain constrained due to rising domestic demand from battery production.
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---- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
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A cluster of positives has finally tilted the fertilizer market toward buyers, from China's return to normal urea exports to fresh Moroccan phosphate cargoes bound for the U.S. Yet the whole picture still hinges on one waterway, and a prolonged standoff around the Strait of Hormuz could unwind those gains before spring.
Fertilizer supply now depends on a handful of contested shipping lanes and pipelines stretching from the Middle East to Northern Europe. Here is how the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, Russia’s shadow fleet and the Nord Stream pipeline are reshaping where nitrogen, phosphate and potash actually move.
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