Talking Points:
Here are the take-home points from Suderman’s comprehensive analysis, available for streaming
Watch Now
The USDA's latest report confirms abundant supplies of corn, soybeans, and wheat:
These figures suggest comfortable supply levels, and Suderman's detailed breakdown of production estimates and market dynamics offers valuable insights for traders and producers alike.
While U.S. and South Russian wheat yields are exceeding expectations, Suderman emphasizes the need to monitor Black Sea spring wheat and corn production closely. This region's output could significantly impact global supply dynamics, making it a crucial factor for market participants to watch.
Suderman highlights a significant change in the inflation outlook.
A strong correlation (0.87) exists between the StoneX Commodity Index and both inflation expectations and U.S. CPI Year-over-Year.
This shift in perspective could have far-reaching implications for commodity markets and economic policies, which he explores in depth during the July Outlook.
As a result of the changing inflation outlook, Suderman identifies an emerging commodity deflation fund trade in the near term. This trend could significantly influence market dynamics and trading strategies.
Despite ample supplies, Suderman cautions that balance sheets are not immune to weather problems. He provides a comprehensive analysis of current weather patterns and their potential impacts on crop production, including:
Understanding these weather risks is crucial for accurately assessing potential market movements.
Given the vulnerability of balance sheets to weather issues, Suderman emphasizes that weather patterns remain the primary focus for commodity markets in the near term. He offers in-depth analysis of:
Suderman's Outlook provides a wealth of information for anyone involved in commodity markets or agricultural production. From detailed supply and demand figures to expert analysis of weather patterns and economic trends, this presentation offers valuable insights to help navigate the complex world of commodities. For a more comprehensive understanding of these critical factors and their potential market impacts, listen to the full July Commodity and Economic Outlook.
Register today and receive advance notification before the next Market Outlook live webinar.
Register Here
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Black Sea export revenue has collapsed and the pressure is landing on next season's winter wheat and rapeseed planting. Falling farm income, rising freight costs, Russian state support measures and European dryness now shape the acreage decision more than the war headlines do.
August 19 – Stock futures were quietly mixed for much of the night. Two wars continue to weigh on investor sentiment, but the economy continues to push forward. Treasury yields pulled back a bit overnight, but the trend remains higher. Yet, the VIX continues to trade near 15 this morning, which is a relatively low level reflecting a sense of complacency. The dollar index is trading near at an 11-week low near 99.0 as it slips lower in recent days, helping to offset a slow rise in commodity prices. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.64% after hitting fresh 19-month highs yesterday, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.17%. WTI crude oil is trading near $85, while Brent trades near $91 per barrel this morning.
August 18 – Stock futures continued to leak lower overnight amid escalating tensions on two war fronts, and as Treasury yields push higher. The VIX inched higher to trade near 16 as well, although that is still relatively low. Even so, it is firming. The dollar index is trading near 99.6 as investors assess Japan’s financial stability. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.74% at this hour, after posting a fresh 19-month high this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.20%. WTI crude oil is trading near $85, while Brent trades near $91 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets are firmer this morning, garnering support from solid demand, more yet unconfirmed reports of hits on grain boats in the Black Sea, and amid crop tour results that put some doubts on the size of this year’s crops.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
