By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
Russia exported roughly 1.6 million tonnes of wheat in July and August estimates cluster near the low end of a 2.2 to 3.5 million tonne range, down from 4.4 million tonnes a year earlier and the weakest pace in a decade. That collapse in export volume is what now threatens winter wheat planting across the Black Sea, because farmers who cannot ship grain cannot generate the cash needed to buy seed and fertilizer for the next crop. Here is what happened. Strikes on ports, grain terminals and vessels closed off the export route, domestic prices in Russia and Ukraine fell because nothing was moving, and freight costs climbed at the same time. The issue may move from a shipping story to a planting story.
Bertrand Oesterle is Vice President of Clearing and Execution Sales at StoneX Financial Ltd, working with institutional clients on futures clearing, and execution across global derivatives and listed markets. He follows grains and oilseeds alongside the wider commodity complex and contributes to StoneX market intelligence covering the physical flows, freight and farm economics that sit behind planting decisions.
Farm revenue across Russia and Ukraine is falling at the same time as farm costs rise, a combination that directly reduces the cash available for the next planting round. Ukraine has exported roughly 1.3 million tonnes of wheat against 1.5 million tonnes at the same stage a year earlier, while its maize shipments of about 1.4 million tonnes remain ahead of last year's 0.9 million tonnes but are slowing. The mechanism is straightforward, as Oesterle describes it, because "in both Ukraine and Russia we see prices going down because there's nothing coming out. There's no exports, there's no demand. But we see freight going up". Growers are absorbing a cost increase and a revenue decrease at once. For commercial buyers, that matters less as a price signal today than as an indicator of how much grain gets planted, harvested and offered in the next marketing year.
"What's the point of me spending money on fuel to harvest something that I'm going to transport at a higher cost, and I'm not going to be able to export as well, leave it in the field", Oesterle says, summarizing the argument circulating about the late stage of the Russian wheat harvest. That scenario is probably overstated, in his reading, because state intervention changes the arithmetic. According to Oesterle, "Russia has stated that they will offer subsidies, preferential loans, and also they're going to open their intervention stocks", which allows the system to absorb surplus wheat until export routes reopen. Notably, the support addresses this year's crop rather than next year's inputs, which is where the concern has now shifted. If exporters and farmers cannot sell, they cannot fund seed and fertilizer, and Oesterle notes that market participants are already weighing lower or later planting for winter wheat in Russia and for winter wheat and winter rapeseed in Ukraine.
European Union growers face a different constraint, namely weather rather than war, and it lands on the same winter planting window. Consecutive heat waves have already cut the rapeseed and maize crops, pushing European Union maize imports to roughly 2.12 million tonnes this season against 1.48 million tonnes at the same point last year, while European wheat exports have run at about 1.48 million tonnes versus 2.9 million tonnes a year earlier. Record low water levels on the Rhine have compounded the movement problem, evidenced by a fresh record low this season that eased only marginally. Whether dryness delays planting or shrinks the planted area is the open question, though growers themselves sound less alarmed than the market does. "Farmers are basically saying that they think they will plant anyway. Their concern is more on the rain side", Oesterle reports, adding that the sharper risk is rain arriving all at once and causing floods.
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--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing & Execution Sales
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Black Sea export revenue has collapsed and the pressure is landing on next season's winter wheat and rapeseed planting. Falling farm income, rising freight costs, Russian state support measures and European dryness now shape the acreage decision more than the war headlines do.
August 19 – Stock futures were quietly mixed for much of the night. Two wars continue to weigh on investor sentiment, but the economy continues to push forward. Treasury yields pulled back a bit overnight, but the trend remains higher. Yet, the VIX continues to trade near 15 this morning, which is a relatively low level reflecting a sense of complacency. The dollar index is trading near at an 11-week low near 99.0 as it slips lower in recent days, helping to offset a slow rise in commodity prices. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.64% after hitting fresh 19-month highs yesterday, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.17%. WTI crude oil is trading near $85, while Brent trades near $91 per barrel this morning.
August 18 – Stock futures continued to leak lower overnight amid escalating tensions on two war fronts, and as Treasury yields push higher. The VIX inched higher to trade near 16 as well, although that is still relatively low. Even so, it is firming. The dollar index is trading near 99.6 as investors assess Japan’s financial stability. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.74% at this hour, after posting a fresh 19-month high this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.20%. WTI crude oil is trading near $85, while Brent trades near $91 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets are firmer this morning, garnering support from solid demand, more yet unconfirmed reports of hits on grain boats in the Black Sea, and amid crop tour results that put some doubts on the size of this year’s crops.
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