By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
Vincent Deluard, StoneX Director of Global Macro Strategy, explores the paradox of soaring global markets amid ongoing economic and geopolitical crises.
Deluard outlines that despite major crises including the Covid pandemic, Ukraine war, China’s economic issues, and US tariffs, key indices like the S&P 500 and Nikkei trade near all-time highs. This paradox reflects the complex interaction between real-world shocks and financial market dynamics.He notes, “For the past few years, many economic and political commentators agree that we live in a time of bloody crisis… Yet many of the world's largest indices like the S&P 500, the FTSE 100 or the Nikkei 225 trade near or at all time high.”
The pandemic triggered unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, causing nominal GDP to skyrocket. Policymakers have been so quick to react to shocks that stimulus often dwarfs the original crisis impact. This has created a persistent pattern where every market dip is aggressively bought, reinforcing a self-perpetuating rally. Deluard explains, “Since Covid, we've lived in a world of what I call the hyper reactive policymaker, where, before, even before we get the consequence of a shock, we have a policy response that is sometimes magnitudes larger than the initial shock.”
Deluard highlights how index funds and target-date retirement accounts buy stocks regardless of geopolitical or economic turmoil, reducing fear-driven sell-offs. This behavior institutionalizes the buy-the-dip phenomenon, as portfolio allocations require rebalancing into equities following price drops.
He states, “In the US, most pension funds are invested in what’s called a 401K… The index fund doesn’t look at the geopolitical context, it doesn’t look at the tariff announcement, it just buys stock if it has money.” Further, “We have institutionalized buy the dip. We have made it the default behavior of the retirement industry.”
High asset valuations carry inherent risks, especially when prices are based on long-term growth expectations that may not materialize. Deluard emphasizes that secular inflation, where inflation persists long-term, and the risk of stagflation in the US due to tariffs and demographic changes could force long-term interest rates higher, pressuring stock valuations, particularly growth stocks reliant on future cash flows.
He warns, “The elevated level of market is a risk in itself… If you buy the same stock at 100 times earnings, it’s going to take you a long time to achieve a certain investment outcome.”
Deluard adds, “I remain of the opinion that we are in a world of secular inflation, that the biggest risk is not that growth slows, but that it accelerates so much that it becomes an inflationary mix, and that long term rates have to rise significantly.” On stagflation, he cautions, “This is probably more of a risk in the US… we are imposing tariffs, which are a very inefficient form of tax… at the same time, we still have massive stimulus in place.”
Access live prices, supply and demand data and actionable market commentary across commodities, equities, currencies and more. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a free trial.
Sign up for a free Market Intelligence trial today
---- Written by Gus Farrow
---- Expert: Vincent Deluard, StoneX Director of Global Macro Strategy
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
A sharp semiconductor selloff exposed how much of a modern index can ride on a single sector. The bigger lesson for long-term investors was that concentration, not the chips themselves, was the real risk sitting inside broad benchmarks.
The S&P 500 trades more heavily than almost any instrument on the planet, which is exactly why traders lean on it to read the market's mood. Understanding how it reflects risk-on and risk-off sentiment turns a single index into a wider gauge of where confidence is building or fading.
Tesla is prioritizing artificial intelligence, autonomy and robotics even as higher investment weighs on margins and free cash flow. The shift challenges investors to decide whether near-term pressure is destroying value or building the platforms that could drive Tesla’s next growth phase.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
