By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
Josh Linville, StoneX VP of Fertilizer, analyzes China’s export policy changes and the potential impact of Russia-Ukraine peace talks on global fertilizer markets.
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Linville explained that China has played a central role in global fertilizer pricing. Its restrictions sharply reduced exports in 2024, but the gradual return toward normal levels in 2025 marks a major change. While not yet at historic norms, the rise from a few hundred thousand tonnes to more than four million tonnes of exports could significantly improve global supply conditions. “It has been improving slowly, which could be them seeing maybe a return to a normal market globally”.
The peace process between Russia and Ukraine carries major implications for fertilizer. Russia could push for normalized relations and the resumption of natural gas flows to Europe. That would reduce European energy costs and allow fertilizer production to return to full strength. Linville noted that such a shift would transform Europe from a buyer back into a supplier, adding to global availability. “If we start to talk about European nitrogen production restarting back to 100%, that removes Europe as a buyer, that puts more supply on the marketplace”.
The alternative scenario is one of escalating trade conflict. Linville warned that if peace fails, the United States has signaled heavy tariffs not only on Russia but also on countries continuing to do business with it. This could slow Russian fertilizer exports and tighten supply worldwide. “If enough countries around the world do back the US tariffs, Russian exports start to slow down”.
Even with supply potentially improving, farmers face critical timing challenges. Fertilizer shipped in September may not reach fields until November, aligning with application season. Linville advised that early planning and clear communication are essential. “Having the conversations about here’s what I think I want to need, here’s what my plan of attack is, helps to give that supply chain a little bit of an edge up”.
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---- Written by Frederic Guetin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
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