By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
Josh Linville, StoneX VP of Fertilizer, examines how sanctions on Russia and shifts in China’s exports could reshape fertilizer markets worldwide.
Linville noted that sanctions could range from minimal disruption to a collapse in Russian exports. “It’s a low probability event, but massively impactful”. Russia is the largest urea exporter, meaning tighter supply would drive global prices higher.
Even without global coordination, US action would significantly reduce Russian exports. Linville explained that “the US has become one of the last major demand destinations”, so a ban could sharply tighten global balances.
Russia’s loss of its Odessa pipeline left ammonia exports constrained. Meanwhile, phosphate supply is concentrated among five producers, raising the risk that disruptions could ripple worldwide. “If you start to remove Russia, there isn’t a farmer in the world that isn’t going to feel the effect”.
North American farmers are preparing for application season under poor economic conditions. Linville compared today’s struggles to earlier decades, saying “these guys are struggling more than they have in a very long time”. Demand exists, but many may delay purchases until spring.
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--- Written by Gus Farrow, Head of StoneX TV
--- Expert: Josh Linville, StoneX VP - Fertilizer
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