By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
Michael Lytle, Chief Investment Officer at StoneX Wealth, examines how the Fed’s recent 273-day pause compares with past rate cutting cycles.
Lytle highlighted that the most recent Federal Reserve pause lasted “two hundred and seventy three, calendar days”, ranking it as the second longest period since the mid 1970s. Only the 2002 cycle was longer, underscoring the unusual nature of the current delay.
Reviewing past cycles, Lytle noted that “six of the ten periods you see here were longer than two hundred days” [00:03]. He stressed that while the pause was notable, it was not unprecedented, especially when compared with similar periods of monetary easing.
Since the early 1990s, considered the modern era of policy, “four of those six had delays longer than two hundred days” [00:04], according to Lytle. This suggests that extended gaps in rate cutting campaigns are relatively common in contemporary cycles.
Lytle pointed out that “it’s been seventeen years since we’ve seen a delay like this” [00:05]. Earlier decades featured more frequent pauses, meaning market participants then were less surprised by them. In contrast, the recent cycle drew greater attention due to its rarity in the post-2008 environment.
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---- Expert by Michael Lytle, StoneX Wealth, Chief Investment Officer
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