By: Gustian Farrow, Head of StoneX TV • Content Channels
Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, explores the IMF’s 3% global growth outlook and its market implications.
Deluard stressed that the IMF’s 3% growth outlook stems more from institutional bias than from real weakness in the economy. He compared tariffs to a minor tax on global GDP and argued that “the world economy is like a Titanic with enormous momentum”, framing the IMF’s earlier pessimism as an overreaction rather than a reflection of fundamentals.
Policy, in Deluard’s view, remains highly stimulative across regions. The US is running fiscal support near 7% of GDP, while Europe has shifted toward larger deficits. He explained that global growth is holding firm because “we get a little bit more, thanks to extremely stimulative policy all around the world”.
Although Deluard described steady growth as the natural state of economies, he warned that poor political choices could derail momentum. He pointed to the risk of tariff escalations and worsening US-China tensions, remarking that “the biggest risk is that we do something very stupid”. However, he also suggested that this is not the most probable scenario at present.
For the longer term, Deluard highlighted demographic pressures and rising debt as key headwinds. Sovereigns that control their own currency have more flexibility, yet shrinking birthrates will inevitably slow labor force growth. He noted that “we have this global slowdown in birthrates… that’s the biggest challenge”, requiring both governments and markets to rethink how resources are distributed.
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Sign up for a free Market Intelligence trial today See our financial videos hub---- Written by Gus Farrow, Head of StoneX TV
---- Expert: Vincent Deluard, StoneX Director of Global Macro Strategy
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