The cocoa market enters 2026 with a fragile balance between recovering crops and depleted stocks. West Africa remains at the center of this story, with Ghana and Ivory Coast responsible for most of the world’s supply. Traders are watching rainfall patterns, harvest yields, and disease pressure closely. The region’s next crop will decide whether prices ease or stay near historic highs.
Lucca Bezzon, Market Intelligence Analyst at StoneX Brazil, explains how production trends and climate risks in West Africa are defining the outlook for cocoa in 2026.
Key Themes from the Discussion
Ghana and Ivory Coast together produce nearly 60% of global cocoa.
Weather conditions and crop diseases remain the dominant price drivers.
Low stock levels and irregular rainfall continue to shape trader sentiment.
West Africa’s weather patterns remain the single biggest factor in determining cocoa supply. Bezzon explained that “the main period for rains are between April and July” , and that the outcome during those months often sets the tone for the entire harvest. Good rainfall earlier in the year lifted expectations, but “between July and September rains have been sparse and irregular”. That uneven pattern has left producers cautious and traders wary of declaring a full recovery.
Cocoa Stocks Remain Critically Low
The region’s slow stock rebuild continues to limit downside pressure on prices. Bezzon noted that even with slight improvement, “stocks haven’t recovered yet”, keeping the market historically tight. Ghana and Ivory Coast’s performance will therefore determine whether 2026 brings a surplus or another year of tight supply. Until consistent yields and stable weather return, cocoa markets will remain highly sensitive to every update from West Africa’s fields.
Download the StoneX Quarterly Commodities Outlook
Access analysis across the agricultural, energy, metals, and emerging currency markets, alongside critical insights into the factors influencing these markets over the upcoming quarter.
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
