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Argentina's planned Bonar bond issuance for 2027 has jumped to around $11 billion, more than double the $5 billion the government first outlined. Argentina bond issuance is running into higher secondary market yields, leaving the 2026 program roughly $800 million short of its $6 billion goal and pushing the government toward the World Bank and other lenders. Central bank reserves have recovered to around $12 billion on the back of a record trade surplus, but that cushion has to cover both debt payments and any defense of the peso. How Argentina closes its financing gap now sets the terms for its sovereign bondholders.
Lucio Arrocha is an economist and Argentina Strategist at StoneX, with more than six years of experience covering emerging-market fixed income and macro. He follows Argentine and wider Latin American sovereign and corporate credit, along with local rates and FX, the markets where Argentina's financing choices play out.
Argentina bond issuance plans for 2027 have more than doubled, from an earlier $5 billion to around $11 billion, even though the 2026 program has not yet reached its goal. The government expected to raise $6 billion through 2026 issuance and remains roughly $800 million short. As Arrocha puts it, "they have not yet achieved the goal for these 2026 issues", a gap he links to yields moving higher alongside markets abroad. That leaves Argentina needing to borrow far more in 2027 at a higher cost than when the program began.
Argentina is in talks with the World Bank over a new line of credit, part of a broader push to refinance some debt through other counterparties and international support rather than fresh bond sales. Yields on the 2029 bond the government has been issuing have risen sharply in the secondary market since its first sale, making every new tranche more expensive. According to Arrocha, if the country risk premium does not fall to the levels the government is hoping for, "other lines will be tried to be tapped instead of the bond market". As a result, the path of Argentina's country risk premium now shapes how much of the 2027 borrowing bill reaches bond investors at all.
"Right now we're in a situation where you either choose, make all your debt payments and pay them in cash, or be able to defend the currency," Arrocha explains. Reserves at the Central Bank of Argentina stand at around $12 billion, up from negative territory a year earlier and built on record dollar purchases. Argentina's financing looks sufficient if the government can tap its credit lines, but Arrocha cautions that "if maturities have to be paid all in cash, there is no comfortable cushion" for intervention in the FX market. Conversely, a successful World Bank or swap-line deal would leave more of Argentina's reserves available to support the peso.
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--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Lucio Arrocha, Argentina Strategist at StoneX
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