By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
A Treasury buyback expansion revived the dollar debasement trade, gold caught a bid, and Bitcoin ran with it in the largest single week rally in more than three years. Bitcoin weekly momentum has since climbed to its highest reading of the year, which confirms the strength of the move and simultaneously places the market at a reading last seen at the record high. Momentum extremes say less on their own than they do about location, and Bitcoin has arrived at this one directly beneath its first serious resistance zone. What the market does at that zone carries more weight than the reading itself.
Michael Boutros is a Senior Market Analyst at StoneX Media with more than 20 years trading foreign exchange, commodities and equity indices, and close to two decades spent reading markets through a structured multi time frame technical framework. That framework is what this theme runs on, because momentum extremes only carry meaning when they are measured against the weekly and daily structure they appear in, which is the lens he applies across the assets he covers.
"Momentum has also reached on the weekly level, the highest levels of the year". Boutros is pointing at the strongest Bitcoin weekly momentum reading of the year, the evidence behind an advance that has produced gains in seven of the last nine weeks and lifted price more than 40% off the yearly low. The complication is precedent, because the last instance of Bitcoin weekly momentum at this reading came when the record high was registered rather than somewhere on the way to it. In Boutros' framing the extreme is not bearish in itself, since "momentum is still in overbought condition. It keeps this thing constructive", but it does mean the reading confirming this trend is the same one that accompanied the last major turn.
Bitcoin's break of the May downtrend is what separates an overbought momentum reading that sustains from one that stalls. On the daily chart the advance ran straight into its first near-term resistance shelf, a region where the May swing high, an extension level off the yearly low and former trend line support all converge, which leaves the immediate move vulnerable even while momentum stays constructive. Boutros is direct about what that convergence represents, calling it "absolutely critical and will be determinant for the next major leg in Bitcoin". According to Boutros, "the shift in the momentum profile, the shift that we're seeing in price and the breakout of that May downtrend does suggest a more firm low is in place", which is the structural argument that keeps an extreme reading constructive rather than terminal.
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--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX Media
--- Expert: Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst, StoneX Media
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Bitcoin's weekly momentum has climbed back to the highest reading of the year, the same level that was in place when the record high was registered. That precedent does not make the advance fragile, but it does change what the next resistance test is worth.
Bitcoin's weekly momentum has climbed back to the highest reading of the year, the same level that was in place when the record high was registered. That precedent does not make the advance fragile, but it does change what the next resistance test is worth.
Bitcoin rose 8% and gold added 4% in the same session, yet U.S. equities closed just 0.2% higher and futures pointed lower. That gap between alternative assets and stocks is the clearest signal in the move, and it changes how the rally should be read.
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