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Chicago corn futures are trading close to a four-month low, yet buyers who would normally step in at these levels are holding back. Corn feed demand is weakening because cheaper Brazilian frozen chicken is replacing local poultry production across the Mediterranean basin and the Middle East, so fewer birds need feeding. That matters because a market that looks cheap on paper cannot recover without consumption. For producers, merchants and feed buyers, the poultry trade has quietly become part of the corn price story.
Bertrand Oesterle, Vice President, Clearing and Execution Sales at StoneX Financial Ltd in London, contributes to StoneX market intelligence covering grains and oilseeds. He works across listed agricultural futures where corn, soybean and wheat prices meet the export flows and feed demand shaping this market.
Corn feed demand in the Mediterranean basin and the Middle East is falling because local poultry producers are losing out to imports. According to Oesterle, "despite the fact that it looks cheap, the consumers in the Mediterranean basin and in the Middle East in particular still feel that prices are too high and it is impacting the consumption for feed, especially for chicken." One StoneX client put the problem more bluntly, warning that "chickens don't eat twice" once birds have gone to market. Every chicken replaced by an import is one that no longer eats local feed corn, meaning lower prices alone have not been enough to bring buyers back.
Brazil's frozen chicken exports reached some 4.51 million tons from January through October, up from 4.09 million tons in the same period a year earlier, an increase of roughly 10%. StoneX's team in Brazil supplied those figures to test what feed buyers in importing countries were reporting, and the data supports the buyers' account. As a result, feed demand is shifting away from the importing countries that would normally absorb cheap corn. On the ground, "the live chickens, the production chicken, are basically being replaced by cheaper imports of frozen Brazilian origin," as Oesterle puts it.
"The U.S. exports are still lagging the pace where they should be in order to get to the USDA annual figure," Oesterle says, even after South Korea bought 543,000 tons of U.S. corn and Mexico bought 315,000 tons. U.S. corn exports remain behind the pace required to meet the U.S. Department of Agriculture's annual forecast, despite those purchases. With the U.S. corn harvest 74% complete, more supply is reaching the market just as feed demand thins. Moreover, Brazil's first corn crop is already 63% planted, and new record estimates keep emerging for the 2026/27 Brazilian corn season, including a StoneX estimate of 145.99 million tons. That combination helps explain why corn sits close to a four-month low even though it looks cheap.
--- Written by Johanna Botta, StoneX TV Presenter
--- Expert: Bertrand Oesterle, StoneX VP of Clearing & Execution Sales
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Cheaper Brazilian frozen chicken is replacing local poultry production across the Mediterranean and Middle East, taking feed corn demand with it. Corn looks cheap after its slide, but without feed buyers the market struggles to attract fresh demand.
November 4 – Stock futures saw an unusually wide overnight trading range as the results of the U.S. midterm elections came in but are pointing to a sharply positive open to kick off the day, though we may be seeing a flow of money out of tech and into other sectors as policy expectations shift. For reference, tech heavy Nasdaq futures are up only 0.4% at the time of writing, while Dow Jones futures are up 2.2%, and S&P 500 futures are up 1.2%. Markets have often viewed divided government favorably, as political gridlock can limit major policy swings and provide businesses with a more predictable regulatory and fiscal environment. A unified government, by contrast, increases the likelihood that more of the governing party's agenda can be enacted, as we’ve seen demonstrated rather clearly since the beginning of 2025. With that said, the VIX has also fallen sharply this morning, currently down 13% on the day to hang near the 18 level. The dollar is sharply lower to start the day as well, currently down 0.5% to trade near 101.35, potentially a sign of investors heading back into risk-on mode with the election uncertainty behind us, as well as the potential for less aggressive tariff and Middle East policy. Treasury yields are quietly lower, with 2-year yields at 4.60%, 10-year yields at 4.92%, and 30-year yields at 5.303%. With the midterms out of the way, we’ve removed a major layer of noise, hopefully putting us back in a position where financial markets can begin shifting their focus from this uncertainty back toward economic fundamentals, policy implementation, and corporate earnings.
November 3 – It’s election day in the U.S., with the corresponding geopolitical uncertainty looking to drive a day of volatile, headline-driven trade. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open, with the Nasdaq hoping to find some turnaround Tuesday action to stop the bleeding from the recent selloff that has battered the tech sector and drove the index to its lowest close since late July yesterday. The VIX is off its overnight highs but remains elevated, hovering near 20.8 at the time of writing. The dollar is effectively unchanged to start the day, trading at 101.82. Treasury yields are quietly higher after their recent slide that has coincided with the selloff in the equities, particularly tech, potentially signaling some investors fleeing to safe havens, with 2-year yields at 4.585%, 10-year yields at 4.919%, and 30-year yields at 5.294% this morning. Meanwhile, the ags are mostly lower at the break.
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