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CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

Nonfarm payroll data this morning.

The Supreme Court tariff decision on tariffs may come out today. 

U.S. Energy Secretary Wright said the United States believes it can reach a workable balance with China in Venezuela, stressing that Washington will not allow China to gain outsized control over the country while still seeking peaceful relations with Beijing. He said the U.S. can market oil more competitively than Venezuela, does not intend to cut China off, and sees Venezuela’s oil production potentially rising by as much as 50% over the next 18 months. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. will remove sanctions on some Venezuelan entities, noting strong interest from independent oil producers and smaller “wildcatters” to move quickly into the country, while larger oil companies are expected to proceed more cautiously.

Fed Governor Christopher Miran said he expects 150 basis points of rate cuts this year, arguing that inflation above target is largely due to statistical distortions and that underlying inflation is closer to 2.3%, with goods prices not being driven by tariffs. President Donald Trump said he has a decision in mind on the next Federal Reserve chair but has not discussed it publicly. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also called for additional rate cuts, saying interest rates remain well above neutral and that policy should not be restrictive, with models pointing to a neutral federal funds rate of 2.5%–3.25%. He added that several candidates are still under consideration to succeed Jerome Powell, with a decision expected in January, and noted that the administration has not yet finalized plans for any crackdown on private equity purchases of single-family homes.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that China appears to be taking the fentanyl issue seriously for the first time, attributing the shift to pressure created by tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. He added that the use of IEEPA tariffs has also been effective in bringing Mexico and Canada to the negotiating table, highlighting their role as a tool to gain leverage in negotiations.

 

Overnight options activity 

Corn

S 1000 k 430 p 6 1/8 to 6

B 350 h 445 straddles 20 1/2

B 400 h 450 c 8 1/8 

S 200 n 480 c 14 7/8 

 

Bean oil

B 100 g 49 p .465 vs 4978

B 100 h 4450/44 ps .030

 

Kc wheat

B 100 g 530/500 ps 9 3/4

 

Open interest changes

Corn 

Feb 465 call buys were new....july 425p/500c strangle buy, march 450/480/510 call fly sale, feb 455/475 call spread sale and feb 445 call buys were closing...

 

Beans

March 1080 call buy and w2 1050/1040/1036 put tree buys were new....feb 1040 put buys were closing

 

Soymeal

March 315 call buy and march 305 call buys were new

 

Bean oil

July 54/58 call spread buy was new

 

Wheat

March 530 call buy vs sale of march 500 put, sept 555 straddle sale and july 480p/600c strangle sales were new

 

Lean hogs

Dec 80 put buys were new

 

Cvol

Ags 18.27% up .25%

Corn 19.31% up 1.13%

Beans 16.06% up .12%

Soymeal 19.08% down .24%

Bean oil 23.72% up .62%

Wheat 23.65% up .45%

Feeder cattle 18.07% up .11%

Live cattle 16.66% down .25%

Lean hogs 21.00% up .01%

Class 3 milk 14.18% up .15%

 

 

Two year vols

Corn

Beans

Soymeal

Bean oil

Wheat

Kc wheat 

Miax wheat

Oats

Rough rice

Crush

Oilshare

Feeder cattle

Live cattle

Lean hogs

sources:

option data globex
news bloomberg
charts bloomberg

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