Stocks sold off after the Fed left rates unchanged but opened the door to possible rate hikes later this year as officials weigh inflation risks tied to the Iran war. Short-dated Treasury yields jumped, with the 2-year yield up 13 bps to 4.19%, and money markets moved to fully price in a Fed hike by October. The S&P 500 fell 1%, while the dollar strengthened. The key takeaway is that markets are shifting from a “Fed on hold” mindset to a renewed concern that inflation could force the Fed back into tightening mode.
With U.S. Open coverage beginning Thursday morning at 6:30 a.m. CT, World Cup matches running through the day, and the Juneteenth holiday ahead, trader attention may be more scattered than usual into the long weekend. That combination could lead to lighter participation, thinner liquidity, and choppier price action, particularly if fresh fundamental news is limited.
USDA corrected a prior June 8 flash-sale report, saying the 103,000 metric tons of corn to Japan should not have been reported because it was a U.S.-based sale. The valid announcement was 264,000 metric tons of new-crop soybeans sold to unknown buyers for 2026/27. The soybean sale is modestly supportive because “unknown” can keep China demand speculation alive, but the correction removes the bullish corn headline and puts the focus back on whether soybean sales see follow-through.
DOE ethanol data was mixed-to-slightly bearish for corn. Ethanol stocks rose 0.1% on the week to 24.474 million barrels, but that was below the Bloomberg survey average of 24.623 million. Production slipped 0.5% to 1.102 million barrels per day versus expectations of 1.108 million and the prior week’s 1.108 million, implying a modest slowdown in corn grind. Blender inputs were stronger, up 1.4% to 920,000 barrels per day, which is supportive for demand. Regionally, stocks rose in the East Coast, Midwest and West Coast, but fell on the Gulf Coast. Overall, the report is not a major market mover: production was a little light, stocks were below expectations, and implied fuel demand improved.
Trump said the U.S. and India are “very close” to finalizing a long-awaited trade agreement, while praising Prime Minister Modi as a tough negotiator and calling him a friend. The meeting at the G7 was the latest attempt to repair strained ties after tensions over U.S. tariffs, India-Pakistan issues, and the Iran conflict. The proposed interim deal had been delayed after the Supreme Court struck down some reciprocal tariffs; under the earlier framework, Indian exports would have faced an 18% tariff versus the 50% rate Trump announced last year. Talks have continued since March, with USTR Jamieson Greer expected to visit India later this month. Overall, the headline is constructive for U.S.-India trade relations, but the final deal still depends on unresolved issues and the outcome of U.S. Section 301 trade probes.
May pending home sales came in much stronger than expected, rising 3.8% month over month versus the 0.9% estimate, with the index improving to 76.8. Sales were also higher from a year ago, up 2.1%, marking the biggest monthly gain since September 2024. The report points to firmer housing demand despite ongoing affordability and mortgage-rate pressure, which is positive for growth sentiment but could keep some pressure on the Fed if housing activity and shelter inflation remain sticky. Business inventories rose 0.5%, in line with expectations, making that part of the report more neutral.
May retail sales were stronger than expected, rising 0.9% month-over-month versus the +0.6% estimate, with April revised slightly lower to +0.4% from +0.5%. The strength was broad enough to matter: sales excluding autos rose 0.8%, ex-autos/gas rose 0.5%, and the key control group rose 0.7% versus +0.4% expected. Overall, this is a firm consumer-spending print and leans hawkish for rates, because it suggests demand remains resilient despite higher prices and tighter financial conditions. For markets, it is supportive the dollar and yields, but less friendly for Fed-cut expectations and risk assets.
CME is setting up a planned succession, not an abrupt exit. Terry Duffy will move from CEO to Executive Chairman on March 1, 2027, while Lynne Fitzpatrick, currently President and CFO, will become CEO and join the board. This lines up with CME’s prior move to extend Duffy’s contract through the end of 2026 and elevate Fitzpatrick to President/CFO, so the market should read this as orderly leadership transition rather than instability.
Corn
B 1500 h 560 c 7 7/8 vs 461 1/4
B 1000 z 500 c vs s sd n 520 c 11 3/4
B 1500 u 500 c 4 ¾
B 500 n 430 c 3 5/8
S 200 q 410p/480c strangles 12 1/8
B 3000 u 400/370 ps vs s u 460 c 4 ¼ db
B 500 n 410 p 2 5/8
B 1400 u 400p/500c strangles 12 1/8 vs 427 1/2
S 200 u 425 straddles 39 1/2
B 2500 z 500 c 12 to 12 3/8 vs 447 1/2
B 1000 n 425 c 4 1/4
B 2500 z 500 c vs 447 ½ against s 2500 q 485 c vs 427 ½ paying 8 5/8
S 1500 n 430 c 3 to 2 7/8
B 500 sd u 470/485 cs 3 5/8
B 500 z 475 c 17 1/4
B 1000 n 420 c 7 ½
S 750 z 600 c vs b u 600 c 1 7/8 cr
B 1000 sd n 470 p 26 to 26 7/8
B 1000 u 450 c 11 to 11 5/8
S 200 u 430 straddles 39 1/2
B 2000 sd q 470 c 8 ¼ to 9 1/8
B 1000 u 500 c 3 ¾ to 3 7/8
S 600 n 415 straddles 12 5/8
B 600 h 500 c 8 1/8 to 8 1/4
S 500 z 400 p 7 1/8
S 1500 u 400 p 8 vs 425 1/4
B 200 sd q 460/480 cs 5 1/4
S 750 u 385 p 3 5/8 vs 428
S 150 sd n 455 c 4 1/8
B 400 u 450/500 cs 7 ½ to 7 5/8
B 300 sd n 440 c 11 5/8
B 1000 u 450/470 cs 4 to 4 1/4
B 500 n 420 p 7 ¼ to 7 1/2
S 500 u 430 c 18
B 1000 u 450 c 11 to 11 5/8
B 300 n 430/460 cs 2 3/8
B 500 u 425 c 20
S 100 q 415 p 10 1/2
B 1000 sd n 445 c 7 5/8
S 100 h 465/500 cs 10 3/4
B 100 h 490/460 ps 19 1/4
S 300 q 420 p 13 1/8
S 1500 u 480 c 5 5/8
S 500 u 440 c 14
On a block
B 850 u 460 c 9 3/8 vs 426 1/4
S 1000 z 420 p 13 ¾ vs 445
B 750 h 550 c 8 1/2
B 1000 u 450 c 12 vs 427
Beans
S 3000 q 1100 p vs b n 1100 p 9 cr coved vs x 1152
B 2100 x 1250/1350 cs 12 1/8 to 12 1/2
B 500 h 1250/1350 cs 16 3/4
B 500 x 1170 c 42
B 500 x 1080 p 16 7/8 vs 1152 3/4
S 1000 u 1270 c 6 ½ vs 1138
S 1000 x 1100 p 22 ¾ to 22 5/8
B 1000 sd n 1140 p 6 1/4
B 1000 x 1200 c 31 ¾ to 32
B 500 sd n 1160 c 8 1/8
S 500 n 1140 p 15 5/8 vs 1133
B 300 u 1300 c 4 ½ vs 1137 1/2
B 500 n 1180 c 1 3/8 to 1 5/8
B 500 x 1190 c 35
S 300 n 1150 p 12 5/8
B 1000 x 1250/1350 cs 12 1/8 to 12 3/8
On a block
B 250 x27 1200 c 50
B 450 u 1200 c 16 ½ vs 1139
Soymeal
B 300 n 310/320 cs vs s n 300 p .20 db
S 200 n 315 p 1.60 to 1.45
B 250 q 315 c 4.50 vs 305.0
B 200 n 310/313 cs .75
B 1000 n 300 p 2.15 to 2.60
On a block
S 500 q 300 p 5.00 vs 305.7
Bean oil
B 500 u 70 p vs s 1000 u 62 p 2.300 vs 6895
B 1000 q 71 c 1.720 vs 7000
S 500 u 63 p .750 vs 6880
B 200 q 7350/76 cs .560
B 500 n 75 p 3.560
B 250 n 70 p .470
S 500 u 82 c .290 vs 6904
B 100 q 78 c .820
S 150 u 71 p vs b q 73 p .135 cr
B 500 v 55 p .265
B 500 q 70 p 1.785 vs 7107
B 500 n 68 p .630
B 800 n 78 c .045 to .070
B 450 q 7250/76 cs .930
S 100 q 70 p 1.670
B 1500 u 67 p vs 6980 against s 1500 n 70 p vs 7270 paying 1.410
On a block
B 1000 u 72/80 cs 1.330 vs 6900
Wheat
B 150 u 655/705 cs 9 3/8
B 350 u 650/700 cs 10 1/8
B 150 u 700 c 9 1/2
S 1000 n 650 c 1 ¾ to 1 5/8
B 100 q 670 c 8 1/2
B 1000 n 620 c 7 to 7 3/8
B 300 n 675 c 5/8
S 800 n 600 p 6 ¾ to 6
S 150 u 560 p 6 3/4
Kc wheat
B 1000 n 630 c 20 to 21 7/8
B 1000 n 640 c 14 to 17
Hogs
Sold 200 Feb 92 calls @ 1.025 down to .975
Bought 100 Feb 84/76 put spread paid 9.05
Bought 200 Aug 90/86 put spread paid .575
Bought 1000 Feb 76/82 strangles v Dec 72/80 strangle paid 1.40
Bought 450 July 98/102 call spread paid .275 up to .30
Bought 400 Aug 80/94/98/110 Iron Condor paid 3.95 up to 3.975
Bought 600 Oct 96 calls paid .625 up to .6750
Bought 450 Dec 90 calls paid .7250
Bought 150 Aug 96/100 call spread v. 92 puts paid .10 up to .20
Live Cattle
Sold 500 July 248/254 call spread @ 2.325 down to 2.30
Bought 350 Aug 234/230 put spread paid .425
Bought 300 Aug 234/229 put spread paid .50
Bought 150 Dec 248 calls paid 5.60
Sold 150 Dec 246/254 call spreads @ 2.875
Sold 700 Aug 246 calls @ 6.6250 down to 6.55
Bought 400 Aug 256 calls paid 2.30 up to 3.325
Bought 200 April 240/230/220/200 put condor paid 1.025 up to 1.05
Bought 500 Feb 270 combos paid 29.725 up to 29.775 Buying the put
Sold 300 July 242/248 call spread @ 4.35 down to 4.30
Feeder Cattle
Bought 500 Aug 340 puts paid 1.7750 up to 1.820
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
