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Daily Coffee Report 10/29/26

StoneX Coffee Team
StoneX Coffee Team

Softs Coffee Miami

December arabica gave up its early gains and then some before staging a solid recovery. It settled 1.30 lower at 285.45 after a wide 280.80–288.65 range on 19,057 lots. The rest of the curve finished in the green: March rose 0.55 to 276.75, and the deferred months gained between 0.10 and 0.75, so the weakness was very much a December story.

The selling came early - Z6 slid from the 288s to a low of 280.80 into the US open, with sellers aggressively hitting bids around 281.00. Buyers then stepped back in and lifted the market back to the 288 area by late morning. The afternoon rotated in a 285.00–287.50 band, close to the volume point of control around 286.25.

Spread continue to be actively - Z/H settled 1.85 lower at 8.70 after trading a wide 7.60–10.60 range. Early in the session, a single block of roughly 370 lots hit the bid at 10.15. The spread was pressed lower through the morning before finding buyers around 8.90, which ended up as the busiest level of the day – going out at 9.20, 1.60 cents off session lows.

Flat price lower with the front spread weaker points to selling concentrated in December, and yesterday’s OI suggests this is not a clean roll. Z6 opened 2,771 lots lower at 66,895, but March added only 358 lots to 57,666, which points to longs exiting December outright rather than rolling forward. A further 1,412 lots of EFPs were posted in Z6 yesterday, accounting for a large share of that decline. Stripping those out, on-exchange OI fell only around 1,360 lots. That is a smaller drop than the selling would suggest, and it points to a decent amount of fresh shorts in the mix alongside the liquidation. Another 526 lots of EFPs and 103 lots of EFS were posted in December today.

There was also a notable block in the December 1-month calendar spread options (CSO), with paper buying 3,925 lots of the Z/H 30.00 call at 0.30. There are 8,925 lots of open interest at that strike, and the strike sits more than 21 cents above where Z/H settled today. That makes this look more like short covering than fresh buying of squeeze protection.

London had a choppy session that ended on the defensive. January settled $23 lower at $3,176, after setting an early high of $3,244, for a range of roughly $3,166–$3,244.

Aggressive buying ran into resting offers on both pushes above $3,220. The late-afternoon slide leaves most of the day’s buyers underwater. The losses were front-led, with H7 down $16, K7 down $13 and U7 down $9.

F/H reflected that, settling $7 lower at $9. The spread traded $7–$16 on some 2,175 lots, close to 70% of which hit the bid, with the heaviest activity at $10 and $14.

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ICE Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume: 40,923

ICE Robusta

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

18,502

Brazil Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

930

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

Source: Refinitiv 
                             Source: Refinitiv 
  • Coffee

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