StoneX logo

Daily Coffee Report 9/28/26

By: StoneX Coffee Team, Softs Coffee Miami

Spot December arabica futures closed more than 10 cents higher today. That extends the four-day rally that began last Wednesday, which has taken the market from the rounded bottom at 270 through 290 and to its highest close since September 14th. Resting buy orders last week below 270 were enough to absorb the volume from sell stops, and length built between 270 and 276 was rewarded by today's move. The rally ran into more active origin selling above 287, but buyers kept lifting offers through 290 and the market finished at the session highs.

There is no single piece of news to point to as the catalyst. Weather in the main washed arabica regions that had been a concern (Central America and Colombia) has mostly improved. A stronger dollar should, in theory, be helping to cap any flat price rally:

  • USDBRL +0.86% at 5.224
  • USDCOP +2.43% at 3,363.50

We therefore look to the cash market for the answer. Spot replacement offers for washed arabica are limited and expensive, which shrinks the pool of deliverable supply against the December contract. Z/H has been holding above a 7.00-cent premium, and today's flat price move is the first real test of the strength of the paper short, which has been growing according to the COT. Cecafé's preliminary Brazil arabica exports for September continue at a strong pace. We would not be surprised to see more coffee presented for grading in October, but volumes should stay limited heading into first notice day.

Cecafé Preliminary Exports — Sep 1–25 vs Aug 1–25 (60-kg bags)

  • Arabica: 2,454,965 (+321,266)
  • Conilon: 764,197 (+97,243)

On the charts, December arabica traded through both the 100-day (291.59) and 200-day (289.57) moving averages today but could not hold those gains into the close. It did, however, post its first close above the 20-day moving average since August 26th.

Robusta

November robusta traded through its 20-day moving average ($3,429) but could not hold the gains. Replacement prices in Vietnam, Indonesia and Brazil have been creeping higher over the past four weeks, and the $3,250 area is holding as the short-term floor for now.

 

305-925-4847                                  +44-203-580-6099            +55-34-3199-1550     

ICE Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume: 33,348

ICE Robusta

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

25,509

Brazil Arabica

Source: Refinitiv 
Source: Refinitiv

Volume:

1,754

Arabica-Brazil Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica-Robusta Arbitrage

Source: Refinitiv 

Arabica Switches

Robusta Switches

Source: Refinitiv 
                             Source: Refinitiv 
  • Coffee

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Related articles for Coffee

Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 29

September 29 – The U.S. labor market is in the spotlight today with the August JOLTs report due out at 9:00 AM Central Time. We’re essentially back to “good news is bad news” in the equities as traders view the resilience of the labor market as a permission signal for the Fed to continue moving rates higher in order to combat lingering above-target inflation. To that end, we’ll also get an update on the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, PCE, for the month of August tomorrow morning. This likely sets the tone for volatile mid-week trade, especially with the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical headlines playing a factor, and the timing coinciding with both month-end and quarter-end.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products

Daily Coffee Report 9/28/26

Daily coffee report

StoneX Coffee Team
StoneX Coffee Team
  • Coffee

Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 28

September 28 – Stock futures are pointing to a lower open to start the week, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both remaining within shouting distance of their respective all-time highs, while the Dow Jones continues to be the laggard of the major indexes, holding in a clear downtrend after touching a three-plus month low last week. The VIX is elevated to start the week but remains on the low-end of 2026 trade, hovering just above 16 at the time of writing. The dollar is in the green again after big weekly gains but a lower close on Friday, trading at 101.16 to start the day. Treasury yields are looking to start the week in focus as they show signs of renewed upward momentum, as 2-year yields rise to 4.91%, 10-year yields rise to 5.215%, and 30-year yields pushing near 5.53%. Crude oil is higher but the grains and oilseeds are widely lower to start the week as speculative length expresses its disappointment regarding more concrete progress between the U.S. and China.

Mike Castle
Mike Castle
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Energy
  • Dairy
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Forest Products
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.