By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
EUR/USD is poised to snap a four-week winning streak, and it is doing so directly beneath the densest resistance zone of the year. Euro traders head into a heavy data run without a confirmed trend behind them, because the rally that recovered more than 3.4% off the yearly low broke above the 52-week moving average and then faded before resistance, leaving price back below that same average. The ascending channel built off last month's low is still intact on the daily chart, so the pullback is not yet a reversal. What makes the coming stretch awkward is the sequence, with eurozone inflation data, the ADP employment report and non-farm payrolls all arriving while the structure is unresolved.
Michael Boutros is a Senior Market Analyst at StoneX Media with more than 20 years trading foreign exchange, commodities and equity indices across multiple desks. He follows EUR/USD through a structured, multi time frame lens with a medium-term, event-driven focus, tracking how scheduled macro data lands on existing market structure.
"The focus is on whether this pullback can stabilize ahead of those January lows", Boutros says, and that single condition defines the whole setup. EUR/USD rallied more than 3.4% off the yearly low, cleared the 52-week moving average, then turned just ahead of a resistance cluster where several of the year's structural markers converge. On the shorter time frames the deterioration is already visible, with price slipping below the median line of the channel and breaking under the weekly opening range. Consequently, the pullback has room to extend before it threatens the larger structure, and momentum ducking back below the midline argues for that deeper setback rather than an immediate resumption. For euro traders, the practical consequence is that the trend is neither confirmed nor invalidated, which is precisely the condition in which scheduled data does the most damage.
The coming week stacks three separate catalysts onto EUR/USD in the space of five sessions. Inflation data from the eurozone opens the run, the ADP employment report follows at the monthly open, and the nonfarm payrolls report closes it out, giving the market fresh reads on both sides of the pair. That matters more than usual because the technical structure has not resolved, so each release arrives with the euro sitting between an uptrend that has not confirmed and a downtrend that has been broken but not buried. According to Boutros, the appropriate posture into that sequence is caution, and he notes that traders should "stay nimble here" heading into the close of the week. Where price settles after payrolls is likely to determine whether the ascending channel survives or the four week advance is written off as a failed breakout.
Access live prices, supply and demand data and actionable market commentary. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and receive a 14-day trial.
Sign Up
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
A four-week euro advance has stalled beneath the year's heaviest resistance zone, leaving EUR/USD back under its 52-week moving average with momentum fading. Eurozone inflation data, the ADP employment report and nonfarm payrolls now land on a technical setup that never confirmed in either direction.
The U.S. dollar has clawed back ground from a three-month low, and the trigger owes as much to unwinding positions as to anything the Federal Reserve has said. Sterling's stalled recovery is the clearest read of what happens when one side of a currency pair loses its policy support.
Federal Reserve rate path expectations have become the dominant driver of the U.S. dollar, with inflation data and central bank commentary landing in the same stretch. Michael Boutros explains why the September decision, not the technical structure alone, is setting the tone for currency markets.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
