By: Leonel Mattos, Market Intelligence Analyst • BRAZIL PRS
USD/BRL and Dollar Index (points)
USDBRL Variations | Daily: -0.30% | Weekly: +0.16% | Monthly: +2.36% | Yearly: -5.65% | 12 months: -6.02%
Dollar Index Variations | Daily: -0.09% | Weekly: +0.62% | Monthly: +2.49% | Yearly: +3.08% | 12 months: +4.22%
USA: Historical and forecast interest rates – updated June 26, 2026
Investors are expected to react to the release of US labor market data, seeking to calibrate expectations for the country's interest rate trajectory.
Why this matters: The expectation of strong labor market data is likely to reinforce bets on interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve later this year, increasing the yield on US Treasury bonds (Treasuries) and strengthening the dollar globally.
Estimates: The median estimate points to the net creation of 110,000 jobs in the US in June.
US Nonfarm Payrolls (000 Jobs) and Unemployment Rate (%)
Expectation of higher interest rates: Overall, indicators point to a stronger and more resilient US economy, suggesting the capacity to absorb higher interest rates.
Inflation measures for the United States (%)
Firm Fed tone: The latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision surprised financial market agents both by the high number of Fed members anticipating further rate hikes in 2026 and by the firm stance of the institution's new president, Kevin Warsh, in defending price stability.
Expected Impact on the BRL Rate: Bullish
As the national elections approach, domestic financial markets tend to become more sensitive to updates about the electoral race.
Why this matters: If the polls reinforce the scenario of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election, they are likely to increase political risk perception of national assets by investors, weakening the BRL.
Fiscal concerns: In recent months, investors have already reacted negatively to election-related news, such as after the announcement of pre-candidacies for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro for the presidency.
Lula in the lead? In the most recent polls, President Lula garnered 46% of voting intentions, compared to 43% for pre-candidate Flávio Bolsonaro.
In detail: Jaques Wagner was targeted by Federal Police operations in the new phase of Operation Compliance Zero, investigating an alleged illicit scheme involving Banco Master.
Expected impact on USDBRL: undefined
End-of-month Ptax rate – sale (BRL/USD)
Trading volume and exchange rate volatility are expected to increase on the last trading day of June due to the formation of the end-of-month Ptax rate.
Why this matters: Financial market operators intensify their operations during the intervals of the last Ptax rate formation of the month to try to influence its value in a direction that benefits their positions, making it harder to interpret real movements on the day.
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