By: Leonel Mattos, Market Intelligence Analyst • BRAZIL PRS
USDBRL and Dollar Index (points)
USDBRL variations | Daily: +0.53% | Weekly: +2.68% | Monthly: +3.00% | Annual: -4.70% | Over 12 months: -3.66%
Dollar Index variations | Daily: -0.32% | Weekly: +0.11% | Monthly: -0.25% | Annual: +1.35% | Over 12 months: +1.48%
Realized volatility in the USDBRL for the month
With the official start of the presidential election campaigns on Sunday (16), investors are expected to become increasingly sensitive to election-related news.
Why this matters: The electoral period tends to be a time of greater volatility in domestic financial markets, which can increase uncertainty and lead investors to reduce their positions in national assets.
Overview: Throughout the week, the BRL suffered significant losses against the USD.
Expectations on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for September 16
In a week without significant indicators on the agenda, the currency market is expected to react to the release of the minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which kept interest rates stable, in the range of 3.50% to 3.75% per year.
Why this matters: By seeking to "correct the record," the document may show greater concern among FOMC members about inflation above the target, suggesting a willingness to keep interest rates higher to restore price stability.
Correcting the record: The FOMC minutes may help dispel the discomfort caused by Warsh's statements during the press conference.
Interest rate hike in doubt: Since the FOMC's July 29 decision, investors have increasingly bet against the possibility of short-term rate hikes.
Stay tuned: Before the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision on September 16, one more monthly reading of the CPI, PPI, and US labor market data will be released.
Last week, the Brazilian government began the process to adopt the Reciprocity Law against the US in response to tariffs recently announced by the US government.
Why this matters: The escalation of trade tensions between Brazil and the US tends to increase the risk perception of national assets, deterring foreign capital and weakening the BRL.
In detail: The Brazilian government informed the Executive Management Committee of the Foreign Trade Chamber (Camex) that it had notified the US government about the start of Reciprocity Law implementation and requested diplomatic consultations.
Affected sectors: The Brazilian government continues to study which countermeasures would be adopted without causing harm to the country.
Overview: Last month, the US implemented tariffs on Brazilian exports reaching up to 37.5% for certain products.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
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