By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
Global fertilizer markets are fragmenting as geopolitical tensions disrupt critical trade routes and supply chains. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is restricting flows from the Persian Gulf, tightening already constrained markets. Fertilizer supply chains are no longer operating as a unified global system but are instead splitting into regional and constrained networks. This shift is forcing buyers and producers to adjust rapidly to a more volatile and uncertain supply environment.
Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX, has over a decade of experience tracking global fertilizer supply and trade flows. His analysis focuses on how disruptions in energy and logistics markets directly impact fertilizer production and pricing, offering a uniquely integrated view of current market stress.
Fertilizer trade disruption is accelerating as the Strait of Hormuz closure blocks key export flows from the Persian Gulf. Josh Linville underscores the scale of the impact, stating "Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, these three countries combined for about 13.5 million tons of urea exports", much of which is now restricted. Consequently, fertilizer supply chains are losing both volume and delivery timing, creating delays across importing regions. This disruption is forcing global buyers to compete for limited supply, increasing volatility, and pushing markets into tighter conditions.
Fertilizer supply chains are facing deeper stress as critical inputs such as natural gas and sulfur become constrained. Linville highlights that "half of the world's tradable sulfur supply" is tied to the Persian Gulf, while gas disruptions are already reducing production capacity in key regions. As a result, fertilizer producers are unable to offset lost supply due to higher costs and operational limitations. This combination of input shortages and logistical disruption is reinforcing a structurally tighter fertilizer market with elevated price risks.
The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for fertilizer exports and energy inputs from the Persian Gulf. Its closure disrupts both supply and production across global markets.
Nitrogen markets are directly impacted by export losses, while phosphate markets face pressure from concentrated supply and rising input costs.
The disruption is raising the global price floor, with tighter supply and higher production costs likely to keep prices elevated into 2026.
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--- Expert: Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX
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India’s next urea tender is becoming the defining event for global fertilizer markets as prices weaken and buyers regain leverage. The outcome could determine whether the recent correction deepens further or stabilises heading into the second half of 2026.
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