By: Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist
Gold prices are losing momentum in March 2026 as Federal Reserve rate cut expectations are pushed further out. As of March 5, futures markets have shifted the first anticipated cut from June toward July, tightening financial conditions at the margin. Despite escalating geopolitical tensions, gold is trading below key resistance, reflecting a market increasingly driven by interest rate repricing rather than safe haven demand. The implication is clear that gold’s near-term direction now hinges on U.S. macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policy signals.
Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at StoneX, has spent years analysing multi-time frame technical structures across commodities and currencies. His experience tracking how Federal Reserve policy cycles interact with Fibonacci retracements and moving averages gives him a distinct perspective on why gold is reacting more to rate expectations than to geopolitical escalation.
Gold prices are adjusting as Federal Reserve rate cuts are pushed further into the second half of the year. Michael Boutros explains that "June up until this war started was pretty much the in-line expectation for the first cut. That's been kicked out now to July and even July now is at a 50/50 rate probability for a cut", confirming that interest rate expectations have materially shifted. Consequently, higher for longer policy assumptions support the U.S. dollar and weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold. This repricing dynamic limits upside momentum and increases the probability of continued consolidation below recent highs.
Gold’s broader uptrend remains technically intact, but its durability depends on whether inflation pressures delay Federal Reserve easing. Boutros underscores the structural sensitivity by noting that "gold's not going to give a yield", reinforcing why elevated rates can dampen bullion demand. Specifically, resistance at $5,378 must be cleared to reopen a path toward record highs, while support at $5,031 and ultimately $4,791 marks the medium term bullish invalidation zone. If stronger employment data and higher oil prices sustain inflation expectations, gold may experience an extended digestion phase before any decisive breakout.
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--- Written by Lindo Xulu, StoneX TV Journalist
--- Expert: Michael Boutross, Senior Market Analyst
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