Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
Gold has risen only 43.9% of the time in the month leading into November, with average and median returns that are effectively flat. Gold seasonality then improves into year end, with November averaging a 1% gain and December posting a 1.4% median return, a lift linked to seasonal weakness in the U.S. dollar. That calendar backdrop arrives with gold flat for the year after a sharp rally and traders growing used to lower prices. For anyone trading gold through the final months of the year, the gap between seasonal averages and typical outcomes is where the real signal sits.
Matt Simpson, StoneX Media Market Analyst, has spent 15 years analyzing and trading forex, indices, gold and oil, and is a certified financial technician. His coverage spans FX macro, technical analysis and sentiment, tracking how the U.S. dollar, positioning data and seasonal patterns feed into the gold market.
Gold seasonality turns positive in November with an average return of 1%, but the median return of just 0.2% shows the typical November gain is far smaller than the average implies. The difference matters because one large rally can inflate an average, whereas the median reflects what a typical November has delivered for gold. The month leading into November is weaker still, with gold rising only 43.9% of the time and both average and median returns effectively flat. Modest seasonal returns like these fit a gold market that is neither collapsing nor sprinting to fresh records. "There's a huge middle ground between up and down, and I'm here to argue that actually, gold might not be pulling back that far, and it doesn't necessarily have to break to new highs," Simpson says.
Gold's December seasonality is the stronger of the two year-end months, with a 1.4% median return that outpaces its 0.7% average, a pattern linked to seasonal weakness in the U.S. dollar. According to Simpson, the U.S. dollar index is already losing momentum at the top of its trend channel, and "it's certainly a change in characteristics compared to the rally that got us here. And if we can pull back, that should help gold over the near term". The U.S. dollar index also has a 50% retracement level just above, giving the greenback several layers of resistance after a three-week rally. A stalling dollar heading into December would therefore line up gold's seasonal tailwind with its main currency driver. Even a sideways dollar leaves room for gold to lift off its lows.
--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX Media Producer
--- Expert: Matt Simpson, StoneX Media Market Analyst
StoneX TV content is created, produced, and distributed solely by StoneX Media Ltd (“StoneX TV”) and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. StoneX TV does not provide investment, financial, legal, or tax advice and does not make any recommendation or endorsement of any investment strategy, transaction, or financial instrument. Nothing in this content constitutes, or should be construed as, investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, including securities, futures, derivatives, digital assets, foreign exchange products, or CFDs. This content does not constitute an offer, invitation, or solicitation to engage in any investment activity. The information presented is general in nature and is not tailored to the financial situation, investment objectives, or risk tolerance of any specific person. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for independent professional advice. Investing and trading in financial instruments involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any views or opinions expressed are those of the presenter at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Such views may not necessarily reflect those of StoneX Media Ltd or its affiliates. StoneX Media Ltd and its affiliates, including StoneX Group Inc., may from time to time have positions in, or engage in transactions involving, the financial instruments referenced. This content may include general market commentary and opinion. It does not constitute independent investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. StoneX Media Ltd is not authorised or regulated to provide investment services and does not act in a fiduciary capacity. StoneX Media Ltd is incorporated in Ireland and operates in accordance with applicable Irish law. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc. and is a separate legal entity from other subsidiaries within the StoneX Group, which may be regulated in various jurisdictions. StoneX Media Ltd does not act on behalf of, or provide services for, any regulated affiliate. This content is not directed at, and may not be distributed to, any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local laws or regulations. Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or technical data may be made available upon reasonable request, where applicable.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
Gold has historically gone nowhere in the month leading into November before picking up into year end. The size of that lift depends on whether you read the average or the median, and on what the U.S. dollar does next.
Comparison between July and September; shift in emphasis and price outlooks
A document with a substantial number of slides and text, built for the Front Desk internal call and analysing market developments, the economic and political background and key market parameters influencing the precious metals. This week includes material on the Precious Metals, notably Gold's lively action; Powell and the Fed, EU and potential margin compression
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
