By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
Crude oil markets are returning to fundamental pricing as the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes normal flows after the Middle East conflict. As of June 26, 2026, the sharp unwind in geopolitical risk premium has shifted attention back to the supply and demand pressures that were already shaping early 2026. The result is a market transition where recovering Gulf production and weaker demand growth matter more than conflict headlines. For crude oil investors, the key risk is that normalization restores the oversupply narrative rather than stabilizing prices.
Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst, brings direct global macro and technical market analysis experience to crude oil price interpretation. Her perspective connects geopolitical supply shocks, Strait of Hormuz flows and long-term WTI crude oil chart structure to the price risks facing energy markets in the second half of 2026.
Crude oil prices are moving away from conflict pricing as Gulf supply conditions normalize. Hilal states that "crude oil prices are entering a transition phase back towards normalization", linking the move to the recovery of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The market is no longer focused only on disruption risk and is again weighing whether supply growth can outpace demand growth. That shift matters because a fading geopolitical premium can expose crude oil prices to downside pressure even while the longer term chart structure remains constructive.
WTI crude oil faces a renewed downside test as prewar oversupply concerns return to the market narrative. Hilal highlights a "potential target near the $55 mark", describing the level as a critical support zone for price action between 2025 and 2026. Specifically, this level becomes important because it may determine whether crude oil consolidates or extends its bearish breakdown. For energy market participants, the $55 area is therefore not just a technical marker but a test of whether fundamentals have fully replaced geopolitical fear as the dominant pricing force.
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--- Written by Frédéric Guétin, StoneX TV Producer
--- Expert: Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst
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Crude oil markets are moving away from geopolitical pricing as Strait of Hormuz flows resume. The shift puts oversupply risk, demand growth and WTI technical support back at the centre of the second half 2026 outlook.
July 1 – Stock futures are pointing to a lower open after back-to-back days of strong gains to start the holiday-shortened week, with the major indexes all remaining within shouting distance of their most recent all-time highs. The VIX is up slightly on the day but remains low relative to recent trade, hovering around 16.8 at the time of writing. The dollar is currently trading just above 101.5, its highest level for the week thus far. Sticking in the currency markets, it’s worth pointing out that the Japanese Yen has hit another fresh 40-year low versus the dollar today after a big move yesterday, keeping lingering concerns of government intervention to support the Yen in the back of traders’ minds. Remember that Japan is the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, currently in the ballpark of over $1.2T, and an offloading of some of these holdings in order to support the Yen could push U.S. yields higher. In the context of increasing U.S. interest rate expectations, that we’ll dive into in more depth below, the situation becomes more precarious. Amid all of this, treasuries are adding to this week’s gains to start the day, with 10-year yields hanging around 4.50% and 2-year yields around 4.195%. Crude oil is weaker yet again, with nearby WTI hovering around $69.10 and nearby Brent around $72.10, both holding in relatively tight ranges this week near pre-war levels. The ags are mostly higher following yesterday’s data dump from the USDA, with fresh rumors of Chinese purchase inquiries providing tailwinds.
The Strait of Hormuz disruption has created a global oil stock deficit of roughly one billion barrels, triggering a restocking challenge expected to sustain elevated prices for at least six months. With tanker rates to the Persian Gulf now exceeding four times their pre-disruption levels, the cost of rebuilding those supply chains will ripple through freight markets and commodity prices well into the second half of the year.
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