Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 1

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 01 Aug 2022, 16:48

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

August 1 - Stocks recovered from early losses to post modest gains today, while much of the commodity sector remained under significant pressure as it priced in global recession fears once again, spurred by the release of poor Chinese economic data overnight. The VIX is trading near 23 at midday, while the dollar index is at nearly four-week lows near 105.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 2.61%. Crude oil prices are more than 5% lower, while the grain and oilseed sector is 2 - 4% lower at midday.

Much of the blame for today's weaker grain and oilseed prices is being placed on reports that the first cargo of Ukraine corn left the Odessa port since the war began, but that doesn't explain the broad liquidation. Soybeans led the way lower today, suggesting that this has something to do with anticipated Chinese demand following the release of its economic data. Of course, soybean prices are also the most vulnerable, since they had the largest gains over the past week. Some would also argue that there is a weather component to the selloff, and that also may be the case, but the overall pattern isn't that much different than what we anticipated would play out when the markets closed on Friday. We're just progressing through the outlook.

Rains are expected to favor the eastern Midwest this week, as shown in the graphics below made by Eric Snodgrass, Principal Atmospheric Scientist for Nutrient Ag Solutions. Note that the heat remains focused on the western Ag Belt, where it will also be driest. The best opportunities for rains will be in the eastern Ag Belt. We'll see a transition zone in-between that will see some ridge-running storms, but there's some question over how much rain will fall in these currently dry areas. Fund managers struggle to understand the impact that this weather pattern will have on crops. As such, they'll play it safe, and monitor weekly crop ratings. USDA will update those ratings this afternoon after the markets close. I anticipate a modest seasonal decline in those ratings today, with a bigger decline next week. This pattern has already created localized regions of significant crop stress, especially in Kansas and Nebraska. However, I anticipate that the national production estimates that start coming out this week ahead of next week's USDA crop report will mostly reflect pretty good crops, with the effect of this weather pattern becoming more easily defined in the weeks ahead.

USDA inspected 33.7 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending July 28, along with 20.4 million bushels of soybeans, 9.4 million bushels of wheat and 3.6 million bushels of grain sorghum. The portion of the above inspected grain that was destined to China included 16.3 million bushels of corn, 4.8 million bushels of soybeans, 2.8 million bushels of grain sorghum, and 0.07 million bushels of wheat. There's essentially one month left in the corn and soybean marketing year. Weekly corn export shipments need to average just 28.6 million bushels to hit USDA's current target, while weekly soybean shipments must average 27.2 million bushels. As such, we'll likely see USDA need to push its corn target a bit higher at some point, while the soybean target is expected to slip a bit lower.

Heat & dryness to focus on the western Ag Belt this week. SOURCE: Eric Snodgrass at Nutrien Ag Solutions

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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